客戶影響力、過度自信與可及性啟發對不動產估值變異之影響：以行為經濟學分析

The Influence of Customer Influence, Overconfidence and Availability Heuristic on the Variation of Real Estate Valuation: Analysis by Behavioral Economics

估價工作涉及市場價值呈現、不可觀察與假設的構想，正確估值能讓市場參與者對不動產價值能有效預測與掌握，估值需要依賴不動產估價師準確判斷。規範上雖然要求估價師必須遵循估價原則與標準程序，但是周遭有諸多影響因素直接或間接改變估價師對估值的認知，造成估價師彼此間的估值產生落差，估值變異現象降低了客觀性與公信力。本文嘗試以人類行為經濟學理論角度觀察，探討現今從業估價師執行估價工作中決定估值可能發生之變異。檢視客戶影響力、過度自信、可及性啟發、工作複雜度與錨點訂定，探究對於估值變異之影響。研究資料採用李學庸(2021)之調查資料，其對象是臺灣不動產估價師公會全國聯合會會員為主，問卷蒐集採用網路問卷方式進行。本研究使用共變數形式結構方程模式(covariance-based structural equation modeling, CB-SEM)分析。實證結果顯示，(1)客戶影響力對錨點訂定具有顯著正向之影響；(2)客戶影響力可透過工作複雜度為中介對估值變異產生顯著正向影響，其具有完全之中介效果；(3)可及性啟發對估值變異具有顯著正向之影響。本研究證實臺灣地區估價師估值變異問題真實存在，人類行為學中的客戶影響力、工作複雜度與可及性啟發是主要影響因素。

The work of valuation involves the presentation of the market value, unobservability, and the proposition of the hypothesis. The correct valuation allows participants of the market to be more aware of the value of the real estate, making it more predictable and approachable; such valuation, however, relies heavily on the precise judgment of the real estate appraiser. Though regulations demand the real estate appraiser to adhere to the valuation policy and standard procedure, surrounding multiple factors still have influenced the understanding of the real estate appraiser toward the valuation, whether directly or indirectly, leading to the valuation variation among the real estate appraiser. That is to say, the phenomenon of valuation variation has decreased objectivity and public credibility. This thesis attempts to observe and explore the possible valuation variation that happened during the process of the valuation of nowadays certificated real estate appraisers through the approach of human behavioral economics. The client influence, overconfidence, availability heuristic, task complexity, and anchor-point setting were examined to delve into the influence caused by the valuation variation. The research participants were mainly members of the Taiwan Real Estate Appraiser Association. The data of this research adopts the survey data of Lee (2021). The web-based questionnaire collection was conducted, and the structure of covariance-based structural equation modeling (CBSEM) analysis was used. The research results were as follows: (1) the client influence had a positive impact on the setting of the anchor point; (2) the client influence could have a positive impact on the valuation variation through the task complexity, which worked as the intermediate effect; (3) availability heuristic had a positive impact on the valuation variation. This research thus verified that the issue of valuation variation among the real estate appraiser indeed exists in Taiwan, and the client influence, task complexity, and availability heuristic mentioned in Praxeology are the main factors of this problem.