逮捕社會危險性量化評估改革實踐的理論反思

我國逮捕社會危險性量化評估改革實踐具有評估內容以綜合評估為主、評估方法以結構式經驗評估為主、評估指標龐雜且集中於定罪量刑情節、評估程序簡單化等特點。該項改革引發了諸多爭議，其中包括能否科學評估社會危險性的準確性爭議、能否保障犯罪嫌疑人正當權利的公正性爭議、能否降低羈押率的實效性爭議。這些爭議問題產生的根源在於觀念上缺乏對社會危險性的科學認識，以及制度設計上以公權力為主導。通過比較研究發現，注重評估因素與社會危險性的因果關係分析、遵循程序正當原則、規範自由裁量權的行使有利於破解爭議問題。為了完善我國社會危險性量化評估機制，應當分類設計評估內容，綜合、漸進式選擇評估方法，階層化構建評估指標體系，進一步完善評估程序，實質化發揮評估結果的作用。

China's reform of quantitative assessment of social dangerousness in arrest decisions has developed certain characteristics: the content of assessment focuses mainly on comprehensive evaluation; the method of assessment relies predominantly on structured experiential assessment; the indicators are numerous but concentrated on circumstances relevant to conviction and sentencing; and the assessment procedures tend to be simplified. This reform has generated significant controversy, including disputes over whether social dangerousness can be scientifically assessed with accuracy, whether the rights of criminal suspects can be safeguarded with fairness, and whether the detention rate can be effectively reduced. The roots of these controversies lie in both the conceptual lack of a scientific understanding of social dangerousness, and the institutional design that is dominated by public authority. Comparative research shows that analyzing the causal relationship between assessment factors and social dangerousness, adhering to the principle of procedural fairness, and regulating the exercise of discretionary power can help address these controversies. To improve China's mechanism for quantitative assessment of social dangerousness, it is necessary to design assessment content by categories, adopt a comprehensive and gradual approach to assessment methods, construct a tiered system of assessment indicators, further refine the assessment procedures, and give substantive effect to assessment results.