台商在中國大陸撤資行為之研究──雙反措施重要嗎？

A STUDY ON TAIWANESE FIRMS’DIVESTMENT FROM CHINA: DO ANTIDUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING MEASURES MATTER?

近年台商對中國大陸直接投資金額快速下降，同時，撤資金額也快速增加，然而，台商撤資行為卻尚未有文獻研究。本研究以2002–2015年間，美國及歐盟對中國大陸提控之雙反案例為研究對象，分析131家相關台灣廠商，在2002–2023年間，影響其中國大陸子公司撤資的因素，以及雙反關稅的重要性。我們以子公司為樣本單位，實證結果指出，在廠商特性因素方面，子公司所有權型態對撤資決策影響最大。在環境因素方面，則是新冠疫情、雙反關稅及中國大陸加工貿易政策改革有較顯著的影響。中國大陸被課徵反傾銷稅，會加速台商子公司的撤資行為，但平衡稅影響則較有限，另外，其他國家被課徵雙反關稅，反而會減緩台商子公司的撤資行為。

In recent years, the amount of Taiwanese direct investment in China has declined rapidly, while the amount of divestment has increased sharply. The divestment behavior of Taiwanese firms, however, has not been systematically explored. The present study focuses on antidumping and countervailing measures (AD/CVD) imposed by the United States and the European Union against China between 2002 and 2015. A total of 131 Taiwanese firms were analyzed to examine the factors influencing the divestment of their subsidiaries from China between 2002 and 2023, as well as the importance of AD/CVD tariffs. The empirical results indicated that, among firm-specific factors, the ownership structure of subsidiaries exerted the greatest influence on divestment decisions. In terms of environmental factors, the COVID-19 pandemic, AD/CVD tariffs, and the reform of China’s processing trade policy all had significant effects. The imposition of AD duties on China accelerated the divestment of Taiwanese subsidiaries, whereas the effect of CVDs was comparatively limited. Furthermore, when other countries were subjected to AD/CVD measures, Taiwanese subsidiaries tended to reduce the pace of their divestment from China.