財政管理法則之分量政策效果研析

AN ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTILE TREATMENT EFFECTS OF FISCAL REGULATION RULES

本研究之主要目的是分析財政管理法則的政策效果，在收支餘絀水準不同的國家間是否存在差異。以1990年至2021年196個國家的總體經濟與財政資料為研究對象，按照各國財政管理法則實施情況，將其分類為「同時實施預算平衡規則（budget balance rule）與債限規則（debt limit rule）」、「單獨實施預算平衡規則」以及「單獨實施債限規則」三種不同實施類型，分別建立三組IV-QR模型獨立進行政策效果分析。研究結果有兩項主要發現:第一，「同時實施兩種規則」與「單獨實施預算平衡規則」的政策效果，對政府收支餘絀有顯著正向影響，且該效果隨分位數增加而下降，亦即收支餘絀低的國家實施兩類法則的效果，會大於收支餘絀高的國家，而「單獨實施債限規則」在各分位數中皆無顯著正向效果。第二，在不同法則間的效果比較中，「同時實施預算平衡規則與債限規則」通常比「僅實施預算平衡規則」更有效，特別是在低分位數中，換言之，財政收支餘絀低的國家同時採用兩種規則最為有效。另外，本研究進一步以財政管理法則對於政府債務累積的影響進行延伸討論，其迴歸結果與上述以收支餘絀作為被解釋變數之結果一致。

The primary objective of this study is to assess whether the policy effects of fiscal rules differ across countries at different levels of fiscal balance. This study uses macroeconomic and public finance data from 196 countries for the period 1990–2021. Countries are classified by the implementation of fiscal regulation rules into three types:“the simultaneous implementation of budget balance rules and debt limit rules,”“the sole adoption of budget balance rules,”and“the sole adoption of debt limit rules.”By formulating three separate IVQR models, this study estimates their policy effects. There are two main findings. First, the policy effects of“the simultaneous implementation of budget balance rules and debt limit rules”and“the sole adoption of budget balance rules”on governments’fiscal balances are positive and statistically significant. Their effects, however, decline across quantiles; that is, their effects are stronger in countries with low fiscal balances than in those with high fiscal balances. By contrast,“the sole adoption of debt limit rules”shows no positive, statistically significant effect at any quantile. Second, comparing the effects of different rules,“the simultaneous implementation of budget balance rules and debt limit rules”is generally more effective than“the sole adoption of budget balance rules,”particularly at lower quantiles, namely,“the simultaneous implementation of budget balance rules and debt limit rules”is most effective in countries with low fiscal balances. In addition, when the dependent variable is the general government debt, the IV-QR results align with the foregoing findings with fiscal balance as the dependent variable.