從解密檔案重估二戰後移入臺灣的外省籍人數

Reassessing Number of Mainland Chinese Immigrants with Declassified Archival Data

二戰結束後，特別是1949 年前後，大量外省籍人口移入臺灣，大幅改變臺灣的人口結構。然而，因現役在營軍人不申報戶籍，成為人口統計的黑數。究竟有多少外省籍人口移入臺灣，成為臺灣史上一大謎題。常見的說法有90 餘萬人、120萬人、150 萬人、200 萬人，眾說紛紜且差距過大。新近解密的「總統府檔案」與「行政院檔案」揭露從未公開的1956 年國軍戶口普查數據。本文利用這些數據推算，在1956 年9 月16 日這個時間點，臺灣與金馬地區共有1,024,233 名外省籍軍民為二戰後移入。這些移入者的性比例高達375，亦即每375 名男性才有100 名女性。

After World War II, and particularly in 1949, a massive influx of mainland Chinese immigrants to Taiwan drastically altered the island’s demography. However, demographic statistics did not include military personnel on active duty who were not required to file household registration. Hence, exactly how many mainland Chinese migrated to Taiwan remained unknown. Estimations varied widely, ranging from less than 1 million to two million. Newly declassified Presidential Office Archives and Executive Yuan Archives contain previously undisclosed 1956 census reports of military personnel on active duty. Estimation on the basis of these archival data yielded a population of 1,024,233 mainland Chinese immigrants in Taiwan and the Kinmen-Matsu military zones on September 16th, 1956. Furthermore, the male to female ratio among the immigrants was 375:100.