臺鐵行車事故風險評估模型

RAILWAY ACCIDENT RISK EVALUATION MODEL OF TAIWAN RAILWAY SYSTEM

依據鐵路法-鐵路行車規則的分類，臺鐵行車事故可分為重大行車事故、一般行車事故以及行車異常事件等三類。在101-110年間，臺鐵每年行車事故總次數都超過500次以上，除發生頻率密集外，在107年和110年也發生了兩次正線出軌事故，造成嚴重傷亡。
因此臺鐵營運應建立定期之風險評量，以確保運作具一定之安全水準。本研究嘗試探討臺鐵系統鐵道事故風險評估分析，利用106-110年臺鐵行車事故資料，將鐵路營運要素分成人、車、路、設備和環境等五類，利用負二項迴歸檢定行車事故發生次數，利用卜瓦松迴歸檢定行車事故死傷人數，以及利用排序邏輯斯迴歸檢定行車事故嚴重程度的因素，希望探討各項影響行車安全的風險因素及對應之改善對策。
模式實證結果顯示，影響行車事故發生次數最頻繁的為車輛、號誌以及電車線設備類型的故障；而會造成傷亡情形發生的則是：民眾侵入、ATP故障或未開啟、工程因素、違反法律或行車規章規定以及侵入致列車受損等；透過嚴重程度指標衡量風險程度依序為：民眾侵入、水淹軌面、電車線故障、雷擊、地震、強風、進站、出發或閉塞號誌故障、軌道電路及計軸器故障、轉轍器故障、雙計軸器故障、侵入致路線中斷、異物侵入以及集電弓故障。

The definition of Taiwan railway accidents can be divided into three categories: major accidents, general accidents and abnormal events. The total number of railway accidents of Taiwan Railway Administrations (TRA) exceeded 500 times per year from 2012 to 2021. In addition to the frequent occurrences, there were also two main line derailment accidents in 2018 and 2021, both of which caused serious casualties. This shows that there are certain safety risks concern of TRA.
The TRA’s regular risk assessment should be established to ensure the safety level of operation. This study uses data from TRA accidents from January 2017 to December 2021. We use negative binomial regression to test the number of accidents and use Poisson regression to test the number of accident fatalities, and adopt the ordered logistic regression to test the factors of accident severity. The factors were considered in this study including human, vehicle, route obstacles, signal or electrical equipment failures and the environment to realize their influence on accident occurrence and severity.
The analytical results show that the most common accidents are failures of vehicles, signals and overhead catenary failure. The situations will cause casualties including people intrusion, ATP failure or failure to turn on, engineering factors, violation of laws or regulations and damage to the train caused by the intrusion, etc. The order of risk measured by severity indicators is human intrusion, track surface flooded, overhead catenary failure, lightning strike, earthquake, strong wind, arrival-departure and signal blocking failure, track circuit and axle counter failure, switch failure, double axle counter failure, route interruption due to intrusion, external object intrusion and pantograph failure.