逃稅罪罰金刑量刑失衡問題實證研究──以284份刑事判決書為樣本

An Empirical Study on the Imbalance of Fines and Penalties for Tax Evasion - Based on 284 Criminal Judgments

運用法律實證分析方法檢視量刑規範在逃稅罪罰金刑司法裁量中是否起到了切實的指導作用。在此基礎上以法學計量方法量化實然層面各量刑影響因素對逃稅罪罰金刑數額裁量的因果效應，進一步使用多元回歸分析構建逃稅罪罰金刑數額可預測模型。發現逃稅罪罰金刑量刑失衡，量刑規範指導作用有限。最後提出回歸逃稅罪罰金刑刑罰目的，以實質要素標準識別個別化量刑情節，實現更高水準的量刑規範化。

Legal empirical analysis examines whether sentencing norms play a practical guiding role in the judicial determination of tax evasion fines. On this basis, we quantify the causal effect of each sentencing factor on the amount of tax evasion fines by legal measurement method, we also construct a predictable model of the amount of tax evasion fines by using multiple regression analysis. It is found that the sentencing of tax evasion fines is unbalanced, and the guiding role of sentencing norms is limited. Finally, it is proposed to return to the purpose of the penalty sentence for tax evasion crime penalty, to identify individualized sentencing circumstances by the substantial element standard, and to achieve a higher level of sentencing standardization.