匈牙利政治轉型與民主變遷――奧班的影響與挑戰

Hungary’s Political Transition and Democratic Changes: Orbán’s Influence and Challenges

波蘭維謝格拉德集團成員國匈牙利、波蘭、捷克與斯洛伐克於1989年後建立民主制度，並成功轉型為民主國家。然而，自2020年起，匈牙利逐步被國際機構評為「選舉式獨裁政體」，成為歐盟內首個被認為非民主的會員國，並引發歐盟對右翼民粹勢力崛起的憂慮。歐匈關係的價值衝突可追溯至2012年，歐盟執委會及歐洲議會陸續對匈牙利政府的違規行為採取法律與政治行動，並在2018年援引『里斯本條約』第7條試圖制裁。2024年，匈牙利總理奧班接任歐盟輪值主席國，在外交、能源及移民政策上採取「灰色地帶」策略，引發歐盟進一步規範輪值主席國權限的討論。本文將分析奧班執政風格及其擔任輪值主席期間的作為，探討匈牙利政治變遷對歐匈關係的影響，並評估歐盟未來可能面臨的挑戰。

The Visegrád Group (V4) countries—Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia—successfully transitioned to democratic governance after 1989. However, since 2020, Hungary has been systematically classified by major democracy indices as an“electoral autocracy,”becoming the first EU member state to be formally designated as non-democratic. This regression has triggered alarm within the EU over the consolidation of illiberalism in Hungary.EU-Hungary value conflicts escalated in 2012, when the European Commission initiated infringement procedures and the European Parliament passed resolutions condemning Hungary’s democratic backsliding. In 2018, the European Parliament triggered Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty, seeking to suspend Hungary’s voting rights over rule-of-law breaches. In 2024, Hungary assumed the EU Council Presidency under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who pursued a“gray-zone”strategy—deliberately ambiguous policies—in foreign affairs, energy, and migration governance, reigniting debates over reforming the presidency’s prerogatives. This article analyzes Orbán’s governance style and his actions during his tenure as the EU's rotating president, examining the implications of Hungary’s political transition on EU-Hungary relations and assessing the potential challenges the EU may face in the future.