重探《左傳》不驗之預言與成書下限之關係

Re-exploring the Relationship Between the Unfulfilled Predictions in“ZuǒZhuàn”and Its Final Date of Compilation

「不驗之預言」指對未來之預測而與史實不符者，前輩學者顧炎武與胡念貽合計提出《左傳》七則不驗之預言，本文檢閱《左傳》又提出三則。此三則不驗之預言皆發生於春秋之世，《左傳》編纂者無由不知其發展與結果。《左傳》編纂者若以應驗與否作為選錄預言之標準，《左傳》不應存在不驗之預言。《左傳》既保留不驗之預言，知《左傳》編纂者不以應驗與否為收錄條件。不驗之預言乃《左傳》編纂者對史料之尊重與保存，不可主張《左傳》編纂者因未予修訂或潤飾，援以為討論《左傳》成書下限之依據。

‘Unfulfilled prediction’refers to prophecy about the future that is inconsistent with historical facts. Senior scholars GùYánwǔand HúNiànyíjointly proposed seven unfulfilled predictions in“ZuǒZhuàn”. This article reviews“ZuǒZhuàn”and proposes three more. These three unfulfilled predictions all occurred in the Spring and Autumn Period, and the compilers of“ZuǒZhuàn”had no reason to know their development and results. If the compilers of“ZuǒZhuàn”use fulfillment or failure as the criterion for selecting predictions, there should be no unfulfilled predictions in“ZuǒZhuàn”. Since“ZuǒZhuàn”retains unfulfilled predictions, it is known that the compilers of“ZuǒZhuàn”do not regard fulfillment or failure as a condition for inclusion. The unfulfilled prediction is due to the respect and preservation of historical materials by the compilers of“ZuǒZhuàn”. It cannot be claimed that the compilers of“ZuǒZhuàn”did not revise or polish it, and this should not be used as a basis for discussing the final date of compilation of“ZuǒZhuàn”.