EU ETS免費排放許可核配與碳洩漏名單篩選經驗――對結合棍棒與蘿蔔達標低碳費（稅）率政策之啟示

Experiences of Free Allowance Allocation and Determination of Carbon Leakage List in EU ETS: An Implication to the Policy of Carbon Charge Stick with Low Fee Carrot

本文探討歐盟（EU）自2005年施行排放交易第一系統（ETS I）在各階段給予能源發電業及工業部門或次部門免費排放許可比例的變革；進而討論同步降低免費排放許可比例及排放許可量總量之雙重壓力下，如何以碳洩漏密集度及貿易密集度、決定工業部門之高碳洩漏產業名單以賦予相對高的免費排放比例。為符合《55套案》於2030年達成GHG減量低於1990年55%目標，2027/2028則推出排放交易第二系統（ETS II），以涵蓋包括家計與其他未納入ETS I的部門。至2030年兩系統合併為一，EU ETS施行了23至24年方逐一將各部門納入。除以ETS I及ETS II涵蓋EU境內各部門外，EU ETS亦以碳邊境調整（CBAM）延伸至進口產品的第三國，本文同時探討EU ETS免費排放比例降低與CBAM引入的對接。對於2013年大幅增加之排放許可拍賣收入所成立的〈現代化基金〉、〈創新基金〉及〈社會氣候基金〉功能亦有所著墨。藉EU ETS免費排放許可之核配及決定碳洩漏名單經驗，以邊際減量成本（MAC）檢視同為碳訂價之碳費（稅），給予有條件之達標低碳費（稅）率下、減碳誘因的來源。

This paper explores the change of free allowance provision for energy and industrial sectors and subsector in each phase of EU ETS I since 2005. This study also investigates how EU ETS I uses carbon intensity and trade intensity to determine the list of carbon leakage sector and subsector when double pressure from lower percentage of free allowance and smaller amount of total allowance come into enforce. In order to achieve 55% GHG emission reduction lower than 1990 by 2030 under“fit for 55 package,”ETS II will go into effect in 2027/2028 to cover all types of sectors and subsectors which are not cover in ETS I. By 2030 both EU ETS I and EU ETS II will merge into one system. The implementation of EU ETS by then brings into all sectors and subsector after implementation 23-24 years. Moreover, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is also applied to cover the related products from the third country which are exported to EU. This study then searches for the engagement of the free allowance phase out and the CBAM phase in. The“modernisation fund,”“innovation fund,”and the“social climate fund”from auctioning revenue of emission permit since 2013 are discussed. The marginal abatement cost is used to examine from the experiences of free allowance provision and carbon leakage list determination from EU ETS how the emission reduction incentive could be arisen from the implementation of low carbon fee with polluter’s voluntary emission reduction commitment.