新冠疫情前後兩岸與美國股市變化之政經分析

A Political and Economic Analysis of Stock Markets on Cross-Strait and the U.S. before and after COVID-19

本研究以文獻與計量分析等方法，進行新冠疫情前後兩岸與美國股市主要股價指數等變化之政經分析。得知若各地正常往來其股市會有關聯性，而疫情對經濟發展可能會產生很大衝擊，不同產業所受影響可能差異性非常大。疫情下政策會對經濟金融產生很大影響，而金融市場可能會依政策適時反應。且疫情前影響經貿金融之非疫情因素可能仍繼續進行。
研究發現疫情期間兩岸與美股股價指數震盪幅度非常大，臺北股市趨勢向上，深證與恆生指數則趨勢向下，道瓊、S&P500與費城半導體指數走勢皆趨勢向上。且臺北股市上市指數與台積電走勢非常相似。各調整後變數間皆具相關性，但存在差異。而臺北上市股市與美國費城半導體指數變動率相關係數高，中國大陸深證與美國道瓊股價指數變動率相關係數低。也發現中國大陸股市比美國費城半導體股價指數稍弱。恆生股價指數比臺北股市與美國股市皆顯著性地較弱。在時間序列計量分析上經單根檢定得知各變數為1階整合變數I(1)。共整合檢定分析發現：兩岸股市存在共整合關係，臺灣與美國股市也存在共整合關係，但中國大陸與美國股市無任何共整合關係，亦即中國大陸與美國股市股價指數各變數間沒有長期穩定關係。若從戰略三角分析角度可知在臺中美股市為羅曼蒂克型，而臺中與臺美皆屬友善，但中美則敵對，且臺灣為樞紐。
而本研究也得知：兩岸經貿實質仍正常交流；就戰略而言，臺灣與美國深度合作非常正確；美中關係漸行漸遠且疫情使得美中關係更加惡化。總之，臺灣產業經濟與金融市場，甚至是整體政經發展皆非常正向。而在美中臺關係上可調整為「兩岸表冷實和」、「美臺深合作」與「美中更對抗」之新不對稱三角結構。此外，結合文獻分析與統計和計量分析等方式，非常適合未來對於兩岸經貿有關主題之後續研究。

This study uses literature and quantitative analysis methods to conduct a political and economic analysis of the changes in variables such as major stock price indexes on Cross-Strait and the U.S. stock markets before and after the COVID-19. From literature analysis: It was known that if there was a correlation between the stock markets of various places, the epidemic might have great impacts on economic development, and the impacts on different industries might be very different. The policies under the epidemic will have great impacts on the economy and finance, and the financial market might respond in accordance with the policies. And the non-epidemic factors that affected economy, trade and finance before the epidemic may still continue in the future.
This study has found that during the COVID-19, Cross-Strait and the U.S. stock price indexes fluctuated greatly. The Taipei stock market trended upward, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Hang Seng Index trended downward, and the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index all trended upward. Moreover, the trends of the TAIEX and TSMC are very similar. After adjustment, the variables were all correlated, but there were some differences. The correlation coefficient between the change rate of TAIEX and the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was high, while the correlation coefficient between the Mainland China Shenzhen Stock Market and the U.S. Dow Jones Index was low. It was also found that the Mainland China stock market was slightly weaker than the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The Hang Seng Stock Price Index was significantly weaker than both the Taipei stock market and the U.S. stock market. In time series econometric analysis, according to the unit root test that each variable was a first-order integrated variable I(1). In the cointegration test analysis, this study has found that there was a cointegration relationship between the Cross-Strait stock markets and there was also a cointegration relationship between the Taiwan and the U.S. stock markets, but there was no cointegration relationship between the Mainland China and the U.S. stock markets, that is, there was no long-term stable relationship between the Mainland China and the U.S. stock markets. From the perspective of strategic triangle analysis, it could be seen that there was a romantic type between the stock markets of Taiwan, Mainland China and the U. S.. And Cross-Strait and Taiwan with the U. S. are friendly, but Mainland China and the U. S. are hostile. Taiwan is a hub.
This study also has found that: Cross-Strait economy and trade remains normal; Cooperation between Taiwan and the U. S. is very correct; the relationship between the U. S. and Mainland China is gradually drifting apart, and COVID-19 has worsened the relationship between the United States and Mainland China. In short, Taiwan's industrial economy, financial market, and even overall political and economic development are very positive. The relationship between the U. S., Mainland China and Taiwan could be adjusted to a new asymmetrical triangular structure of '' Cross-Strait is estranged on the surface but peaceful in reality '', ''the U. S. and Taiwan are cooperating deeply'' and ''the U. S. and Mainland China are more confrontational''. In addition, the research method of combining literature analysis with statistical and econometric methods is very suitable for future follow-up studies on Cross-Strait economy and trade.