中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎對臺商企業產業轉移的影響：湘南長期田野調查的分析

The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War and Covid-19 on Transferred Taiwanese Firms in Southern Hunan

2000年代中期後，產業轉移現象與政策成為研究中國中西部發展與製造業成長的重要課題。本研究關注近年影響跨國供應鏈甚鉅的中美貿易戰與新冠疫情對於臺商產業轉移的影響。儘管過去數年，工總針對臺商會員有數次疫情與中美貿易戰影響調查，不過這些調查所獲得資訊，許多是疫情期間臺商投資意向的表達，並不等同於清零政策解除之後臺商的實際作為，而筆者們過去十年三次湖南省南部的田野訪談資料（最近一次為2023年夏天），可以進一步確認，已經發生的臺商實際投資行為。此外國內媒體報導中美貿易戰對臺商的影響，多是以沿海臺商為主，內陸地區臺商較少被關注，我們的產業轉移臺商研究可以彌補這一遺憾。我們的田野調查確認，中國政府的疫情管控，在疫情後並沒有促成文獻與工總調查所預期的「中國加一」生產分散。而就中美貿易戰的影響而言，雖然多數臺商的營運有受到中美貿易戰的影響，但是只有少數臺商會選擇完全將生產據點撤出中國；多數臺商會以海外分散生產、開拓非美市場來降低風險。筆者們的訪談企業中，不少企業明確說明是因為貿易戰，2018年後在東南亞設立新據點。因此我們的研究確認中美貿易戰促使，之前由沿海遷移到內陸的產業轉移企業，再將生產線分散到海外的現象明顯。

Since the mid-2000s, the industrial transfer has been the important issue related to the development of inland region and manufacturing’s growth in China. This paper focuses on the influence of the U.S–China trade war and Covid-19 on transferred Taiwanese firms. Although Taiwanese industrial association has conducted similar surveys about Taiwanese firms’responses to the trade war and Covid-19 over the past few years, the most data collected from the surveys is the reflection of Taiwanese enterprises’intention but not their action. A serious of authors’fieldworks in the southern Hunan (including the latest fieldtrip in the summer of 2023) could provide the clear picture of what Taiwanese enterprises did in the past years caused by the trade war and Covid-19. Referring to the influence of Covid-19, we discovered that China’s restriction for controlling the pandemic did not make the Taiwanese firms move factories out of China. Referring to the trade war, we find that most Taiwanese firms were influenced by the trade dispute but only few firms would completely retreat factories from China. Most firms have decreased the risk of the trade war by moving some production lines abroad or exploring non - U.S. market. Authors’fieldworks revealed that many transferred Taiwanese firms have built new production lines in Southeast Asia since 2018. As we observed, the trade war did cause the transfer of Taiwanese factories from inland China to relocate abroad.