匈牙利與台海兩岸的經貿互動

A Comparative Study of Hungary’s Economic Relations with Both Sides of Taiwan Straits

匈牙利外交經常在歐盟裡與眾不同，獨樹一幟，或以為是標新立異，其實深入瞭解不難發現匈牙利特立獨行的外交政策行為與該國地理位置與地緣政經密不可分。匈牙利是中歐內陸國，人口不到一千萬，但位居中歐、東歐、南歐的樞紐位置。而今更因中國帶路倡議、中歐班列成為銜接亞歐的陸橋。就歷史言，過去東西冷戰時代1956年匈牙利曾爆發反蘇聯革命遭到蘇軍血腥鎮壓。1989年匈國是東歐國家中第一個揭竿起義，尋求政治民主，市場經改的急先鋒。歐班(Viktor Orban)在2010年接掌匈牙利總理後，眼見該國經濟已落後鄰國，毅然決然聚焦於經濟建設，在政治上與俄羅斯與中國友好，既可避免可能來自俄國的安全威脅，又可享有中國經濟紅利，宣布「向東開放」政策，1力圖將該國成為歐洲陸路交通的樞紐與電動車與電池的生產基地。因而匈國是首個簽署中國帶路合作的歐洲國家，唯一在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後仍與克里姆林宮保持密切關係的歐盟國家。除了發展策略交集之外，中匈兩國的經濟發展與外貿政策亦恰巧呈現互補。中國產能充沛，國內市場飽和又競爭激烈，鼓勵出口海外，資金出海，而匈牙利則力圖吸收外資，成為製造生產中心，使兩國又有了另一項政策對接，堪稱互蒙其利。
未來匈牙利與大陸經貿合作料將持續深化，主要原因有三，即地緣政經、科技突破以及兩國因有利益交集而出現政策接軌。其實，亞歐經貿互動的地緣政經因素本來就存在，過去古絲路即為明證，但後來因為政治因素而斷絕，而今因為高鐵技術的突破，再加上大陸主動積極的帶路政策促使亞歐經貿互動再度復興，且將持續增強。大陸與匈牙利經濟關係越走越緊密正是當前與未來亞歐經貿關係強化、甚至整合的前兆。匈牙利今年成為習近平歐洲行3站之一正凸顯該國在大陸歐洲外交的重要性。匈牙利作為歐盟成員國，且已成為大陸通往歐盟的重要門戶，連接歐盟和大陸的橋樑。美國未來若真選出川普再任總統，勢將成為此一趨勢的加速器，因為川普的美國第一優先、濃厚保護主義色彩與孤立主義傾向將會升高美國與主張全球化與自由貿易的大陸、歐洲的政經衝突，並導致中歐強化雙邊經貿，匈國將是今年下半年的輪值主席。
至於臺灣企業對匈牙利產生興趣，除了因為與中國一樣皆屬出口為導向的經濟體特徵之外，中國帶路倡議亦與台商重視匈牙利有關。台商傳統上幾乎都以中國為生產基地出口海外，尤其美國一直都是台商生產產品出口的最終目的地。因此，中歐班列有利於在大陸台商對歐洲出口的便捷與成本降低。而與中國不同的是，近年來美中戰略政治對抗加劇，尤其是美國對台施壓以及美國科技巨頭要求台商供應鏈或代工廠商降低在中國生產的比率，導致部分台商生產線遷出中國，外移至東南亞、南亞與墨西哥。

Given its strategic location between Asia and Europe as well as China’s One Belt One Road Initiative (BRI), Hungary in recent years has emerged as an interface state between the two continents. Both China and Taiwan view Hungary as a gateway to the European Union (EU) market and thus their enterprises have accelerated their investment in the country in a big way, with an aim to setting up manufacturing hub for the huge EU market.
Though they have the same investment perception and goals, Chinese and Taiwanese companies have different focuses, when it comes to sectors they have invested so far. The former’s investment tends to focus primarily on electric vehicles (EV) and EV batteries, while the latter is quite diversified including electronics, bicycles, smart city and venture capital. Three recent flagstaff investment projects from China are Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) factory in Debrecen in August 2022, BYD’s new energy vehicle production base in Szeged in December 2023. In addition, another Chinese battery maker Sunwoda announced to build its first European plant with an investment of 580 billion forints (EUR 1.5bn) in Nyíregyháza, eastern Hungary in July 2023. On the other hand, Taiwan's Giant Europe B.V. & Giant Manufactory Hungary decided to increase their extra investment of EUR30 million in Hungary in August 2023. Another Taiwanese company Delta Electronics is building plants in Hungary. This is a part of its global expansions in the U.S., Hungary and Thailand to equip the company with a capacity reserved for EV-related components.
The purpose of this paper is to explore Hungary’s economic relations with Northeast Asia through an examination of its economic interactions with both sides of Taiwan Straits, investment and trade in particular. It will begin with how and why these two export-oriented economies like China and Taiwan pick up Hungary as their manufacturing bases for the EU market, then analyze their trade and investment in Hungary in a comparative study fashion. Finally, the author will assess China and Taiwan policies toward Hungary by identifying their prospects and challenges nowadays and future as well as implications for the EU’s economic relations with Northeast Asia as a whole.