解析霸權應對崛起強權策略──美中兩強在關鍵新興科技之權力競爭的理論啟示

Analyzing Hegemon's Strategies for Tackling with Rising Power-Theoretical Implications from Observing the Power Competition between the U.S. and China on Critical Technologies

霸權應對崛起強權的具體策略，是觀察美中兩強權力競爭的重要課題。國際關係受到霸權權力衰落宿命論的影響，無視霸權是戮力科技創新的國際層級結構產物。本文試圖從領導長周期論的視角，勾勒科技創新對於霸權維繫其全球主導地位的重要性，提出霸權面對崛起強權科技創新追趕挑戰的分析架構。本文解析冷戰時期美國回應蘇聯地緣戰略與日本科技創新威脅的不同面貌，辨識美國為延緩中國科技創新追趕速度，在關鍵新興尖端科技領域，所採取的出口管制、自強自固、阻絕圍堵與吸融匯濟等四種策略，並分析美國所遭遇的挑戰與契機。本文發現，延宕中國科技創新步伐的出口管制效果並不顯著，未來美國能否掌握科技創新網絡關鍵結點，爭取盟邦協力，提振美國本土的科技創新成就，將是美國永續霸業的重大挑戰。

The specific strategies employed by a hegemon in dealing with rising powers are a crucial aspect of understanding the power competition between the United States and China. International relations paradigms have been influenced by the notion of the inevitable decline of hegemonic power, often disregarding the fact that a hegemon is a product of international-level efforts in science and technological innovation. This article aims to delineate the significance of technological innovation in maintaining global dominance for a hegemon with the leadership long cycles theory. It presents an analytical framework to examine how a hegemon addresses the challenge posed by rising powers aiming to catch up in technological innovation. The analysis delves into the varied aspects of the United States' responses to threats posed by technological advancements from the Soviet Union and Japan during the Cold War. It identifies measures adopted by the United States, such as export controls, self-strengthening, self-reinforcement, containment, and absorption, particularly in critical emerging high-tech sectors, in an effort to impede China's progress in technological innovation. The article concludes that the efficacy of export-control measures in stalling China's technological advancements is not substantial. Looking ahead, the ability of the United States to control crucial nodes in the technological innovation network, rally support from its allies, and drive domestic technological innovations will pose a significant challenge to its sustained hegemony.