台灣父母主觀福祉、子女性別偏好與生育胎次遞進

Parental Subjective Well-Being, Gender Preference, and Parity Progression in Taiwan

有鑑於臺灣低生育率的現狀，本研究探討生育胎次的遞進，特別著重於了解父母生育子女時的主觀福祉及子女的性別，如何影響第二胎以上的生育決策。我們使用家庭動態調查(PSFD)資料，以存活分析中的Cox比例風險模型(Cox proportional hazard model)與條件模型(conditional model)，分別估計第二胎與第三或四胎子女的出生。我們的實證結果發現，首胎子女出生時父母的相對快樂程度，與第二胎子女的出生，有正向關聯；對於二孩家庭而言，則是父母在首胎子女出生前的平均快樂程度，與第三或第四胎子女的出生呈現正相關。這些關聯亦在不同父母年齡與教育程度間，存在差異。這樣的研究結果顯示，影響第二胎子女出生的因素，與影響第三或第四胎子女出生的因素，不盡相同。我們建議探討第二胎子女的出生，應與第三或第四胎子女的出生，分開估計。

Given the low fertility rate in Taiwan, this research examines the factors behind parity progression with a focus on both parental subjective wellbeing around the birth of a child and gender preference. Making use of Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) data, we estimate Cox proportional hazard models on the event of a second birth and conditional models on the event of third or fourth birth, respectively. Our empirical results show that the relative happiness level around the first birth positively relates to the event of a second birth, while the average happiness level before the first birth positively relates to the event of a third or fourth birth in two-child families. These findings also vary with parents’age and education level. The results suggest that the determinants to predict a second child are not the same as those predicting a third or fourth one, and so we recommend that the event of a second birth be estimated separately from the event of parity three and four.