十二年國教實施與升學迷思？臺北市明星國中學區房價之實證

The implementation of the 12-year basic education and the myth of further education? Evidence of housing prices in the star junior high school districts of Taipei city

十二年國教政策全面實施後，臺灣的教育環境是否逐漸朝向正常化發展，為本研究的主要探討目標。然而本研究並非直接針對教育之實質環境進行探討，而是間接透過明星學校學區之房價變化，以差異中差異模型分析社會大眾對於明星學區房地產之投資心態是否因十二年國教政策全面實施而產生結構性的改變。實證結果顯示，明星國中學區房價在全面實施十二年國教政策之後，較非明星國中學區之房價有更高程度（約5.02%）的上漲，表示全面實施十二年國教政策後並未能有效抑制社會大眾對於明星學區房屋之需求。甚者，十二年國教政策全面實施期間後半期，比前半期呈現出更高程度的明星與非明星學區之房價差異（約3.25％之差異）。但值得討論的是，明星與非明星學區房價之差異隨著十二年國教政策全面實施的深化發展，其房價差異程度由5.02％降為3.25%，似乎呈現出較為緩和的趨勢，然而此一趨勢目前尚無法達到統計檢定的顯著水準，亦即，5.02％與3.25%並不具有統計上顯著差異之意義。

After the full implementation of the 12-year basic education policy, whether Taiwan's educational environment is gradually developing towards normalization is the main purpose of this study. However, this study does not directly discuss the actual environment of education, but indirectly through the changes in housing prices in star school districts, and uses the difference-in-difference model to analyze whether the general public's investment mentality for real estate in star school districts has changed due to the full implementation of the 12-year basic education. The empirical results show that after the full implementation of the 12-year basic education policy, the housing prices in the star junior high school districts have a higher degree of rise (about 5.02%) than those in non-star junior high school districts. The meaning is that the full implementation of the 12-year basic education has not effectively curbed the public's demand for houses in star school districts. What's more, in the second half of the 12-year basic education period, there is a higher degree of price difference between star and non-star school districts than in the first half (about 3.25% difference). But it is worth discussing that the difference in housing prices between star and non-star school districts has been reduced from 5.02% to 3.25% with the deepening of the 12-year state education policy, which seems to be showing a relatively moderate trend. However, this trend has not yet reached the statistically significant level. That is, there is no the meaning of statistically significant difference between 5.02% and 3.25%.