中國大陸各區域貿易集中度及產業結構之分析

An Analysis of Trade Concentration and Industrial Struc-ture for Regions in Mainland China

本文以出口集中度與進口集中度為基礎，探討中國大陸整體及各地區進出口貿易表現。分析1998年至2007年這10年間各地區進口與出口情形，並對當年中國大陸的出口金額、進口金額、產業分布進行整理分析。文中亦採用Herfindahl-Hirschman指數（HHI）分析集中度，分析《中國統計年鑑》由1998年至2007年間的數據，並針對主要地區的變化提出討論。研究結果發現，中國大陸地區在1998年至2007年間整體進口總額與出口總額皆呈逐年成長，各地區的進口金額除西藏外都有成長的趨勢，出口金額亦然。分析進出口的HHI之後發現，HHI無論進口與出口都呈現下降的趨勢，顯示中國大陸地區進出口由高度集中邁入中度集中且逐步下降，表示各地區進出口都不斷成長中，有些地區如黑龍江、浙江等，甚至有十倍以上的成長。這些有著高度成長但是所占比重尚不高的地區，有可能有較高的投資商機與獲利成長空間。

Based on import, export, and trade concentration, this paper investigates the regional industrial structure and trade performance of mainland China from 1998 to 2007. The Herfin-dahl-Hirschman index is applied to compute the export, import, and trade concentrations. The empirical results show that the overall total imports and exports in China both grow year by year. During this decade the amount of imports in all the regions except Tibet present a growth trend, while the regional exports all strictly growing. Both import and export HHI indexes have down-ward trends, implying a more diversified trade situation among regions. Some regions like Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, etc., experience fast trade growth more than ten times from 1998 to 2007. These areas have high trade growth but still low percentages in trade share may provide investment and profit opportunities for overseas investors.