| 英文摘要 |
The current leading index calculated and published by Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) has been widely used for more than 20 years. As the methodology has barely been revised, some components of the index have begun showing increasing weakness in lead due to structural change of the economy in more recent years. This research adopts the OECD approach to construct a new index by evaluating 378 series of data covering production, sales, labor, trade, transportation, banking and finance, and the international economy. The new index outperforms the current one in terms of the lengths of leads, smoothness and predictive power. |
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