人民幣走向論析

2004年，英國經濟學人雜誌(The Economist)公布Big Mac相對購買力指數，顯示人民幣對美元低估57%；美國商務部估計2004年對中國的貿易逆差已增加到1,620億美元，較2003年的1,239億美元大幅成長30%；另弱勢美元已成定型(Rosenberg，2004)，2002年以後，歐亞許多國家貨幣對美元巨幅升值，相對這些歐亞幣別的升值，人民幣釘住美元的作法，形同中國對該等幣別貶值而產生激勵對美出口的效果，進而促使歐美兩大經濟體站在同一陣線，成為人民幣升值的主要壓力來源。

This article discusses the problem of the renminbi, beginning with whether this currency should appreciate on foreign exchange markets. It focuses first on factors that favor appreciation. These include the PRC’s large trade surplus with the U.S., the effect of its low-priced exports on U.S. employment, competition between the PRC and Europe, the marked expansion of the mainland’s money supply arising from the rapid accumulation of foreign reserves, and the increasing interest burden resulting from sterilization measures. This study concludes that the only rational argument for appreciation is that maintenance of a fixed exchange rate will ultimately result in a loss of monetary autonomy by the PRC government.
We also discuss factors cited by those that oppose the appreciation of the renminbi. Among these are the problem of unemployment, a potential loss of foreign exchange holdings by the People’s Bank of China, and the deep recession in Japan caused by a rapid appreciation of the yen. Our study finds that the only valid reason for resisting appreciation of the renminbi is the problems that it might create for the transition of the PRC agricultural sector. Pressure for revaluation comes primarily from abroad, especially from the United States and Europe, and appreciation of the renminbi should be seen more as an international issue combining social, economic, political, and diplomatic concerns than as a purely economic problem.