臺灣選民投票抉擇時間點的成因與影響：以2020年總統選舉為例

The Cause of Vote Decision Timing and Its Impact: A Case Study of the 2020 Taiwan Presidential Election

每逢選舉，部分選民很早即已決定屬意人選，部分選民則經過一段時日的考量後決定，但亦有部分選民直至投票當天才做出最終的抉擇。而不在同時間點做出投票決定的選民，其政治態度與投票抉擇的考量是否有所差異？對此，本文以臺灣2020年總統選舉為背景，利用民意調查資料來進行分析檢證。研究發現，對政治愈疏離、對選舉愈冷漠、愈不具政黨認同、也對候選人的情感好惡難以區辨的選民，將會愈晚做出投票決定。而愈晚做出投票決定的選民，在投票抉擇時，政黨認同與候選人情感好惡的影響力顯著偏低，且投票抉擇的考量因素也相對難以捉摸。不過，延遲決定投票對象的選民，亦可能是左右選情勝負的關鍵少數，成為政黨或候選人必須爭取的對象。

During a political election, some voters make their vote decision at the beginning of the campaign, some voters need more time to make a decision and some voters delay their vote decision until the voting day. The research question of this paper is to detect what difference and impact there is between the voters who make the vote decision at different times. In order to answer this question, this article takes the 2020 Taiwan presidential election as an example and utilizes the TEDS survey data to carry out a statistical analysis. Our findings are that the voters who are more uninterested in politics and lack a feeling or attachment for any political party and/or the candidates make the vote decision later. Therefore, the effects of party identification and candidate preference on the vote decision are weaker for the later decision voter and it is more difficult in understanding how the later decision voter makes a vote decision. On the other hand, the later decision voters also could be a critical minority because the party or candidate will be the winner if he or she gains their ballots.