台灣總體經濟動態對壽險業新契約保費之影響

Do the Macroeconomic Dynamics Influence the Development of Life Insurance New Business Premium in Taiwan?

本文主要探討台灣總體經濟變動對壽險新契約總保費收入變動之間的動態關係和影響程度，觀察樣本選取自2004年至2021年間的時間序列數據，使用向量自我迴歸模型(Vector Autoregression, VAR)和衝擊反應函數(ImpulseResponse Function, IRF)進行實證。研究發現，GDP變動與壽險新契約總保費收入變動之間存在顯著相關；亦即，落後4期的GDP變動量對壽險新契約總保費變動量具有顯著負向影響，且可能存在年度週期性循環影響。本研究結果對於了解台灣壽險業的發展趨勢以及相關政策的制定有一定的參考價值。

This article aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the change of Taiwan’s macroeconomy and the change of total life insurance new business premium income. In this study, we use Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Impulse Response Function (IRF) to model and explain the interesting interdependencies and co-movements among these two variables, according to the relevant quarterly data from 2004 to 2021. We found some evidence that proves the significant relationship between the change of GDP and the change of total life insurance new business premium in that the fourth quarter lagged GDP change has a significant negative impact on the change of total life insurance new business premium. In addition, there may exist annual cyclical effects between these two variables for multivariate economic time series. The empirical results are of important reference value for understanding the historical development trend of Taiwan's life insurance industry and improving the policy formulation.