行駛里程在遊覽車保險的定價

Pricing the Driving Mileage on the Automobile Insurance for Tour Bus

在汽車保險市場中，如果保險費率並未考慮駕駛里程數，則里程數較少的車主會因為保費過高而無意購買；相反的，駕駛里程數較高的車主則有較高的購買意願，因此對保險公司有嚴重的逆選擇問題。雖然我國保險市場上已有針對自用小客車發行依里程數計算保險費的保單，但自用小客車的里程數對保險費率的影響未必能適用在遊覽車業。本研究利用交通部統計處的遊覽車營運狀況調查資料，使用廣義線性模型（Generalized Linear Model, GLM）檢驗遊覽車的行駛里程數與交通事故損失之間的關係，研究結果發現行駛里程數與損失機率及損失次數呈正相關，換言之，行駛里程數愈高，曝險愈高。由於目前國內並沒有檢驗遊覽車損失情形的論文，本文期望透過建立遊覽車里程數與損失狀況的計量模型，做為保險業者開發類似商品的第一步。

In the auto insurance market, if premium is not based on the usage of automobiles, drivers with lower mileage are thus treated unfairly and have lower incentives to purchase insurance. On the contrary, drivers with higher mileage will have higher incentives to purchase insurance. Therefore, the insurance company suffers from adverse selection. Although usage-based insurance (UBI) products exist for personal automobile owners, the relationship between loss and mileage for personal auto insurance may not apply to insurance for tour buses. In this paper, we examine the relationship between loss and mileage for tour buses by applying Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Our data is from the Tour Bus Business Survey conducted by the Ministry of Transportation and Communication. Our empirical results indicate that mileage is positively associated with loss probability and loss frequency of traffic accidents. Since no study has examined the determinants of loss for tour bus in Taiwan, we expect our empirical results for the relationship between loss and mileage could be the first step for insurance companies to develop UBI products for tour buses.