以開放資料探究新冠疫情對臺北捷運旅運量之影響

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Taipei MRT Ridership via Open Data Mining

新冠疫情導致2021年6月臺北捷運旅運量較同年1-4月減少77%，臺北市政府據以調降公共場館租金75%，故本文利用捷運旅運量、車站周邊社經暨土地使用開放資料，以決策樹及GIS分析疫情期間運量影響因素，提供市政決策輔助資訊。結果顯示假日捷運旅次端點若鄰近景點，運量跌幅較大，而車站周邊人口密度及商業區比率與捷運旅運量呈負相關；平日捷運旅運量則與車站周邊住宅區比率、公園綠地比率、家戶年所得呈正相關，捷運旅次太長（≧19.5公里）或太短（＜5.8公里）均加大運量跌幅。不論平、假日，車站周邊青壯年比率與捷運旅運量呈正相關。文末建議捷運站依運量影響因素分類，對應不同租金折減方案，並考慮疫情嚴峻時之捷運支線服務由公車替代，以樽節成本。

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Taipei MRT ridership decreased by 77% in June 2021 compared to the first four months of the same year. In response, Taipei City Government decided a 75% off on the rent of the municipal facilities. The research objective is to explore more auxiliary information based on open data for the city authorities decision making. The open data include the MRT ridership and station surroundings social economic and land-use attributes. These data were analyzed by the decision tree technique and geographic information system to identify MRT ridership factors during the pandemic. The results show that: on the weekends, MRT ridership dropped significantly if either or both trip ends were close to scenic spots; the population density and the commercial area ratio around stations were negatively correlated with MRT ridership. On the weekdays, the residential area ratio, green space ratio, and household income around stations were positively correlated with MRT ridership; long (greater than 19.5 km) or short (less than 5.8 km) MRT trips would cause more ridership reduction. The ratio of young and middle-aged adults around stations was positively correlated with MRT weekday and weekend ridership. The study suggests that the MRT station surroundings can be divided into several groups with more precise rent discounts for the municipal facilities; bus services may replace MRT branch lines during the pandemic for lower operation costs.