不動產預售制度的政策變遷──基於兩岸視域下的間斷均衡理論、比較法學及主題演化

Policy Changes of Housing Pre–Sale System: Intermittent Equilibrium Theory, Comparative Jurisprudence, and Thematic Evolution in a Cross–Strait Perspective

有相當數量的研究和文獻試圖解釋和討論不動產預售中的規制問題，特別是交易行為層面的規制決策過程。與這些研究一樣，本研究的目的是圍繞兩岸商品房預售制解釋交易過程中的法學問題，以便理解商品房預售制成立以來的政策轉變。然而，本研究採用了不同的理論方法，本文以不動產預售行為為例，通過慧科新聞數據庫搜集了中國大陸1,577篇相關文本共計68,480詞匯，臺灣2,411篇相關文本共計88,750詞匯，數據庫有來自中國大陸和臺灣的各類新聞報導。通過詞頻、網絡語義分析等數據挖掘技術，討論了不動產預售的維度以及制度演變，並且使用比較法學和間斷均衡理論的視角來解釋。由於之前沒有研究將兩岸預售制度法律問題聯繫在一起，因此本文對相關文獻的回顧主要集中在房屋預售與其它制度改革之間的關係。由於預售制度涉及環節較多，文章也概述了預售制度存廢問題和商品房預售廣告等環節的公平交易權討論。模擬預測了預售政策演變過程，也驗證了間斷均衡理論的解釋能力。最後結論對預售制政策場域擴大後的展望，提出本研究的不足和進一步的探索方向。本文驗證了預售制度演變的相關理論，豐富了房地產預售制研究領域大數據的研究方法，為兩岸預售制度間斷均衡理論的發展提供了科學依據。

There is a considerable amount of research and literature attempts to explain and discuss the regulatory issues in real estate pre-sale, especially the regulatory decision-making process at the behavioral level of the transaction. Like these studies, the purpose of this study is to explain the jurisprudential issues in the transaction process around the pre-sale of commercial properties on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to unite policy changes since the inception of the pre-sale of commercial properties. However, this study adopts a different theoretical approach. In this paper, we collected 1,577 related texts totaling 68,480 terms from Mainland China and 2,411 related texts totaling 88,750 terms from Taiwan, taking the act of pre-sale of real estate as an example. Through data mining techniques such as word frequency and network semantic analysis, the dimensions and institutional evolution of real estate pre-sale are discussed and explained from the perspectives of comparative jurisprudence and interrupted equilibrium theory. Since there are no previous studies linking the legal issues of the pre-sale system on Taiwan and mainland China, the review of relevant literature in this paper focuses on the relationship between the pre-sale of houses and other system reforms. Since the pre-sale system involves a large number of aspects, the article also outlines the discussion of the retention or abolition of the pre-sale system and the fair trade rights in the pre-sale advertisement of commercial properties. The simulation predicts the evolution of the pre-sale policy and tests the explanatory power of the interrupted equilibrium theory. Finally, the paper concludes with an outlook on the expansion of the pre-sale policy arena and suggests the shortcomings of this study and further directions for exploration. This paper validates the theory of the evolution of the pre-sale system, enriches the research methodology of big data in the field of real estate pre-sale research, and provides a scientific basis for the development of the interrupted equilibrium theory of the pre-sale system on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.