綠能政策與綠色環境政策對農業生產之權衡效果及對都市遠距的影響：以雲林縣農家之機會成本分析為例

Trade-off effect of renewable energy and greening policy on agricultural production and urban land tele-connection: A study of farm households in Yunlin County based on opportunity cost framework

AR5 (2014)呼籲各國重視氣候政策間的權衡、綜效與共效益效果。本文量化計算臺灣農家在面對農業部門的氣候減緩策略及調適策略時所做的權衡取捨及其機會成本。本文以全臺農業產值最高且太陽能板眾多的雲林縣做為研究地區，並以農家選擇的機會成本來探討同時面對「申請農業用地作農業設施容許使用審查辦法」及「對地綠色環境給付計畫」時可能造成的權衡效果。結果顯示，雲林縣121個農家因選擇氣候減緩策略，每家將付出作物市場價值和綠色給付獎勵合計約為113,567元的機會成本。相對而言，若選擇調適策略，每個農家的機會成本高達1,429,247千元。因此，農家選擇減緩策略的機會成本遠低於綠色給付的機會成本。兩者權衡下，農家選擇農地種電的機率高於執行綠色環境政策。然而，此結果將使在農產品消費上與雲林縣具有土地遠距連接的臺北市消費者面臨57百萬大卡的熱量損失；平均臺北市每人每年損失214大卡，特別以損失子仁及油籽類等高熱量但低價格的糧食為大宗。

According to the IPCC AR5 (2014), trade-offs, synergies and co-benefits arise between different climate policies, and therefore, requiring countries to pay attention to policy interactions and spillover effects of mitigation and adaptation policies within and across sectors. On that basis, this study quantifies the trade-offs involved in Taiwan's agricultural strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation. The trade-offs are modelled by a framework of opportunity cost. The paper studies the case of the largest agricultural county in Taiwan-Yunlin County, which also has many solar panels-to examine the trade-offs between a mitigation strategy, named Applying for Agricultural Land as Agricultural Facility Capacity Use Review Measures, and an adaptation strategy, named Environmental Benefit Plan within the agricultural sector. Analytical results show that the 121 farm households that adopted the adaptation strategy incurred an opportunity cost of 113,567 NTD due to the loss of crops planted and the subsidies from the Environmental Benefit Plan. In contrast the opportunity cost of a mitigation strategy for a farm household is 1,429,247 NTD, which is less than the cost of an adaptation strategy. Consequently, a farm household is more likely to choose the mitigation than adaptation strategy. However, consumers in Taipei City who are tele-connected to Yunlin County farm households in terms of agri-products could suffer a heat loss of 57,383,460 kcal. Taipei City loses an average of 214 kcal per person a year, mainly from the loss of low-priced but high-calorie foods such as kernels and oilseeds.