臺灣民眾對中國大陸政府信任與評估兩岸開戰可能之分析

Trust in Chinese Government and Assessment of the Possibility of Cross-Strait Armed Conflict among the Electorate in Taiwan

本研究運用2022年3月「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」的電話訪問資料，描述民眾對於中國大陸的信任程度，並進一步說明民眾認為中國大陸對我發動戰爭的可能性以及影響其戰爭可能性評估的因素。
本研究比較影響民眾對中國大陸政府信任與否的因素時發現：民眾的政黨傾向、統獨立場以及臺灣人／中國人認同都會影響民眾對中國大陸政府的信任程度。在馬政府時期，對總統在兩岸關係處理的滿意度以及對總統的信任度愈高，對中國大陸政府愈信任。相對地，在蔡總統執政時，對總統兩岸施政滿意度愈高或對總統信任度愈高者，愈不信任中國政府。我們也發現：民眾對中國政府信任程度愈高，愈不相信中國大陸會攻打臺灣。民眾認為兩岸關係是國家應該優先處理的問題時，則較傾向認為中國大陸會攻打臺灣。
自從2022年2月俄羅斯出兵烏克蘭之後，臺灣所處的境況愈加險峻，在去年8月美國議長裴洛西訪臺之後，大陸對臺灣舉行軍事演習，使得兩岸情勢更加緊張。因此，透過2022年3月的民意調查，我們更能夠瞭解，民眾對中國大陸信任程度，與其戰爭預期的可能影響。對政策制定者來說，瞭解民眾對中國大陸政府的態度有助其掌握兩岸關係演變的因素，並提出更有效策略來處理兩岸可能的衝突。

This study employs telephone interview data of“Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study”(TEDS) conducted in March 2022 to analyze the level of political trust in mainland China among the electorate in Taiwan. In addition, the study aims to predict the likelihood of a military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan by utilizing a predictive model.
This study compares the factors that influence people’s trust in the Chinese government in March 2014 and March 2022. It shows that people’s partisan affiliation, stance on reunification and independence issues, and their Taiwanese/Chinese identity have significant impacts on their level of trust in the Chinese government. During President Ma’s administration, people’s satisfaction with his management of Cross-Strait relations was positively correlated with their level of trust in the Chinese government. However, in March 2022, two variables were found to be negatively correlated during President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration. This study also demonstrates that the higher people’s trust in the Chinese government, the less likely they are to believe that China will launch an attack on Taiwan. Moreover, when people perceive Cross-Strait relations as a priority issue for Taiwan, they are more likely to believe that China will attack Taiwan. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, the situation in Taiwan has become increasingly precarious. Following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army conducted military exercises against Taiwan, further escalating tensions across the Strait. Therefore, public opinion surveys can provide valuable insights into the degree of trust in the Chinese government among the Taiwanese public, as well as the potential impact on their expectations of a possible war. By examining public perceptions of the Chinese government, policymakers can gain a better understanding of the evolving Cross-Strait dynamics and develop more effective strategies to manage potential conflicts.