應用灰色理論於來臺郵輪客運量預測之研究

A Study on Predicting Taiwan Cruise Passenger Volume by Using Gray System Theory

郵輪產業將臺灣帶入全球化之一環，郵輪經濟帶來可觀的效益，但同時也容易受國際情勢所影響，例如COVID-19疫情重創郵輪產業。因此本研究運用灰色理論中的灰色預測，透過取得臺灣港務公司提供之歷年來臺郵輪旅客人數短時間內之少量樣本，達到更準確之預測。此研究以預測民國110、111年之來臺郵輪旅客人數為目的，期待透過此預測研究方法，作為營運及規劃的參考，並提升我國整體郵輪產業品質，對未來因應突發事件時，也能做出準確的預測，以利未來政府及業者之決策參考。本研究採民國105年到109年共5筆作為樣本資料，藉由研究成果證實透過灰色預測模型，作為短期預測方法，除誤差較小外，在資料樣本不足的情況下，也可以達到方便、迅速、且績效相當好的結果。

Taiwan has been part of globalization because of the cruise industry, and the cruise economy has brought considerable benefits. However, it is easily affected by international situations, such as COVID-19, which has had a tremendous impact on cruise industry. Based on the historical data, this study aims to predict the number of cruise passengers in Taiwan between 2021 and 2022 by using the Gray System Theory. It is hoped that this forecasting research technique can be used as a reference for stakeholders' operational planning, and improve the service quality of cruise industry in Taiwan by making accurate predictions. The data source is from Taiwan International Ports Corporation, Ltd. More specifically, this study takes the data from 2016 to 2020 as the input, applies rolling method for Gray Model, and predicts the future cruise passengers volume. This study verifies that when the number of sample is small, Gray Model Theory is an efficient and reliable technique to predict the short-term cruise passenger volume.