氣候變遷對臺灣農作的影響：以芒果為例

The Impact of Climate Change on Taiwan's Agriculture: Taking Mango as an Example

氣候變遷下，臺灣極端天氣事件發生的頻率逐年增加且劇烈，近年來，芒果生長受極端天氣影響，導致產量下降、價格大幅上漲。冬季為開花期，高溫達25℃以上會造成開花不易，低溫在15℃以下，會造成花穗抽生延遲、花粉活力下降、降低昆蟲授粉率而致芒果不結果，皆使產量降低。本文針對近年來芒果因極端天氣受災的事件，對溫度進行分析，結合農作物資料判斷致災的門檻，推估未來氣候對農作產量的衝擊。使用臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台(Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform，TCCIP)產製之統計降尺度臺灣1公里解析度的網格日資料分析過去1997~2019年的氣候環境，以芒果適合生長的溫度15~25℃作為適溫標準，建立過去氣候下在開花期12~2月的適溫比例，作為均溫順境指標，並利用日高溫及日低溫建立逆境逆境指標，由三種指標結合產量資料進行環境因子對產量之影響的統計模型，以用於未來推估。以MIROC5模式進行在不同暖化情境下，溫度因子對於生產風險的推估。未來氣候變遷推估本身具不確定性，藉由災害風險管理與調適，可減緩芒果生產時面臨的極端天氣衝擊，降低暴露量及脆弱度。本研究以韌性農業的角度繪製生產風險圖，協助農民在災前進行防範，減緩極端天氣所帶來的衝擊。而作物本身擁有因應環境變化而自我調節的能力，透過現代農業技術，可藉由育種的方法選拔優良品種，以提高作物對氣候變遷之適應能力。

Due to climate change, the frequency of extreme weather events has increased and become more severe year by year in Taiwan. In recent years, the growth of mangoes has been affected by extreme weather event which has led to a decline in production and a sharp increase in prices. This study aims to discuss the impact of climate change on Taiwan's main mango variety, Irwin mango. During the flowering period, temperatures above 25°C or below 15°C delay the mango flower spikes and cause mango production to fail. In this study, rainfall and temperature are analyzed, combined with crop data to determine the threshold of disaster, for estimating the impact of future mango production. First, this study uses the statistical downscaling method of Taiwan's 1km resolution grid daily data from Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) to analyze the historical weather from 1997 to 2019. Then, this study takes Irwin mangoes growing temperature from 15 to 25 degrees as the suitable temperature standard in order to establish the average-temperature-opportune indicator in the past. Besides, the daily high and low temperatures are used to build high-temperature and low-temperature adversity indicators. At last, this study combines the three indicators with mango production data to build a statistical model on the impact of environmental factors on future estimation. The impact of extreme weather can cause disasters, leading to widespread losses, and affecting the public or society. The estimation of future climate is inherently uncertain. Through disaster risk management and adaption, the mango production impacts can be mitigated, and reduce the exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well. In this study, a risk assessment matrix is based on the estimated rate of change in mango production under different scenarios. This matrix is from the perspective of resilient agriculture, assisting farmers in pre-disaster prevention and mitigate the impact of extreme weather.