South Korean Security in the Era of G2

G2時代的南韓安全

自本世紀伊始，美國與中共的敵對因中國的崛起而持續增強。雖然美國總統歐巴馬宣稱美中關係是21世紀最重要的雙邊關係，但美中兩強的關係未必只有合作。競爭反而變得越來越嚴重。2008年金融危機爆發後，美國雖需要中共的合作來走出經濟困境，但卻無意讓北京挑戰其霸權。很明顯地美國重返亞太政策（Pivot to Asia）或再平衡戰略（Rebalancing Strategy）都是在制衡的中共的挑戰。朝鮮半島周邊強權拒絕接受單一強權主控整個半島，因而使朝鮮半島成為冷戰後時代碩果僅存的冷戰之島。正因為如此，南韓一直面臨著一個複雜而艱難的美中對抗的戰略困境。南韓的安全依賴其與美國的同盟關係，而中國大陸則是南韓的第一大貿易夥伴。反之，北韓則始終利用美中的對抗來盡可能地擴大其國家利益。北韓如果沒有中共的秘密支援技術與物資，就不可能擁有核武與發展長程飛彈。本文首先將討論美中兩國的東北亞政策以及兩者對處理北韓核武問題的立場差異，然後探討南韓維持朝鮮半島和平與安全的政策選項。

Since the beginning of the 21st century, rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified with the rise of China. Though President Obama labeled the U.S.-China relations as ''the most important bilateral relations in the 21st century,'' the relationship does not necessarily mean cooperation only. Competition between the U.S. and China has become more serious. The U.S. needed Chinese cooperation to recover from the financial crisis in 2008, but has no intention to allow Chinese challenge to the U.S. hegemony. It is clear that the U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific, named as ''Pivot to Asia'' or ''Rebalancing Strategy,'' is to check the Chinese challenge.