總體審慎措施對房地產價量變化的影響

The Impacts of Macroprudential Instruments on Housing Prices and Transacted Volume

本研究針對臺灣六大都會區之房地產市場，探討租稅政策（囤房稅與房地合一稅）及金融政策（貸款成數與貸款利率），對房地產價量變化的影響。並以新加坡、首爾、香港、及臺北市的租稅及貸款成數上限政策，在各地區抑止房價的有效性及影響，進行四區的跨境比較。實證結果顯示：(1)囤房稅與房地合一稅，對於遏止六都房價飆漲或帶動房價持續下跌的效果顯著，並使房地合一稅效應的提前反映。而六都中，唯一實施（差別稅率）囤房稅的臺北市，抑止房價飆漲的效果，尤為顯著。(2)金融措施中的貸款成數與貸款利率的政策效應，隨著購屋者擁屋數的多寡而不同；在北區三都，擁有二屋以上族群，貸款利率與房價，皆呈負相關，與政策預期方向相同，而貸款成數與房價，則呈現不顯著的負相關，與政策預期相左。(3)跨境比較的結果，在香港及臺北，貸款成數上限對於房價指數，皆呈顯著正相關，與政策預期方向相同，其他兩區，皆不顯著。2014年在新加坡及臺北市實施的房屋稅相關政策，與該地的房價指數，呈現顯著的負相關；而在首爾，從2018年2月宣布調高綜合不動產稅率，此政策變數與房價指數，卻呈現顯著的正向關聯。綜上所述，適時實施適當的總體審慎措施，有助於抑止持續進行中的投機行為與不合理房價飆漲的可能。希望研究結果與建議，有助於政府有關單位，制定房地產相關政策之參考依據、促進合理房價之形成、與臺灣房地產市場之健全發展。

We examine the impacts of macroprudential instruments on housing prices and transacted volume for the real estate market of six metropolitan areas in Taiwan, while cross-regionally comparing the effects of tax policy and LTV cap on housing prices in Singapore, Soul, Hong Kong, and Taipei City. There are three major empirical results. First, the property taxes on non-self-use houses in 2014 and the consolidated housing and land taxes in 2016 have significant effects on cooling off the housing market and driving house prices to fall subsequently in Taiwan’s real estate market, respectively. The cooling-off effect of the property taxes is particularly significant in Taipei City. Second, the negative impact of mortgage rate among financial policies on housing prices increases with the number of houses owned by homebuyers. Third, in cross-regional comparison, the positive impact of LTV cap on housing prices is significant only in Hong Kong and Taipei City as expected; the negative impact of property tax is significant in Sigapore and Taipei City as expected, but significantly positive in Soul. We show that implementing appropriate macroprudential policies timingly helps restrain on-going speculation and irrational exuberance potential in real estate markets. Our empirical results and suggestions can help promote the formation of reasonable housing prices and shed light on sound development of the real estate market in Taiwan.