越南學習華語文人數的趨勢研究

The Trend on the Number of Chinese Lan-guage Learners in Vietnam

隨著中國經濟崛起，華語文學習已是全球新興教育事業。各國多推展華語文學習，全球估計有上億非華人學習華語文，「漢語熱」在世界各地不斷升溫。各國對通曉華語的技術人才需求量大增，各國都把中國作為潛力相當大的銷售市場和投資市場，不管是旅遊業或外貿行業，華語已經成為很多從業人員的必備素質之一。越南華語文教育發展既有利於當地華人傳承民族文化，也有利於加深越南社會對中華文化的理解和認識，增進中越及臺越間的合作往來，促進中越和臺越關係之發展。華語文已被越南國家教育部批准為中小學外語教育的正式語文，且集中在河內及胡志明市兩大城市。本文以河內及胡志明市為主要研究範圍，探討越南此二城市官方與非官方學習華語文人數之趨勢。本文主要是運用越南教育部華語文學習統計資料及採用灰預測GM（1, 1）方法構建越南學習人數之預測模式，並進一步比較河內及胡志明市學習華語文人數之變化。本文研究越南華語文學習人數趨勢之比較結果，可提供政府、語文中心及相關業者作為華語文產業推動之參考。

With the rise of China, Chinese language learning has become a global emerging education industry. Countries around the world have promoted Chinese language learning. The estimate of non-Chinese people learning Chinese in the world is over 100 million. The“Chinese language fever”is heating up all over the world. The demand for technical talents who know Chinese in the world has increased greatly. Countries have regarded China as a potential sales market and investment market. Whether it is tourism or foreign trade Chinese has become one of the necessary qualities of many practitioners. The development of Chinese language education in Vietnam is conducive to the inheritance of national culture by local Chinese. It is also conductive to deepen the understanding of Chinese culture in Vietnamese society, enhancing cooperation between China and Vietnam and, Taiwan and Vietnam, and promoting the development of Sino-Vietnamese and Taiwan-Vietnam relations. In addition, Chinese language has been approved by the Ministry of Education of Vietnam as the official language of foreign language education in primary and secondary schools, and is concentrated in two major cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Therefore, this study takes Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City as the main research areas to explore the trend of the number of official and unofficial Chinese language learning in these two cities in Vietnam. This paper mainly uses the Vietnamese Ministry of Education’s Chinese language learning statistics and the gray prediction GM(1, 1) method to build a forecast model for the number of Vietnamese learners, and further compare the difference of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City of learning Chinese language learners. Further, this study provides results for Chinese language learners in Vietnam as a reference for the government, language centers and related industries to promote the Chinese language industry.