東協因應美「中」競爭之策略分析：經濟互賴與避險戰略之視角

Analysis on ASEAN’s Response to the US-China Competition: Economic Interdependence and Hedging Strategy

中國大陸在崛起之後，提出「一帶一路」倡議以擴大經濟影響力，備受矚目。而美國也有「重返亞洲」政策，並提出「印太戰略」與「印太經濟架構」等，在東南亞形成美「中」抗衡的明顯情勢。近期美國為貫徹對大陸的貿易戰，達到美國製造的目標，更提出所謂「供應鏈聯盟」，計劃針對晶片及其他重大戰略性產品，建立不依賴大陸的供應鏈。各類產業部分移出大陸，甚至有很大部分轉往東南亞地區經營，對東南亞國家的發展將產生一定之正面影響。本文以互賴理論和避險戰略的途徑，分析東協國家如何因應此一情勢；由於東協國家向來不依附任何國際勢力，以及奉行等距外交傳統，並基於東協中心來考量自身國家利益。因此儘管國際強權的競爭，對東協國家言，仍應會自行協調來自美「中」兩國的影響因素，將兩強的競爭轉化為有利的布局，達到協助東協各國發展之優勢。

Following its rise to prominence, China has proposed its Belt and Road initiative to expand its economic influence, garnering widespread attention. The US has also pivoted its foreign policy focus back to Asia, raising various proposals such as as its Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Indo‑Pacific Economic Framework. In Southeast Asia, the US has established a clear presence to counter China’s influence. As part of its trade war against China, and in order to achieve its goal of shifting manufacturing to the US, the United States has recently proposed a “supply chain alliance” targeting chips and other major strategic products, establishing a supply chain with no reliance on China. Various industries have partly moved out of China, with many turning toward doing business in Southeast Asia. This would positively influence the development of Southeast Asian countries. This text analyzes how ASEAN countries have responded to these actions from the perspective of interdependence theory and hedging strategy. As ASEAN countries have in the past not fully sided with any other international power and have a tradition of practicing equidistant diplomacy, they consider their own national interests by focusing on the ASEAN region. Thus, despite this competition between the two major international powers, ASEAN countries will nevertheless seek to independently navigate the US and China's influence. ASEAN countries will turn this competition between the two powers to their own advantage in order to benefit their own national development.