緬甸軍事政變與失敗國家安全危機：東協的回應與辯證

The Myanmar Coup and the Security Crisis of a Failed State: ASEAN's Response and Dialectics

2021年2月緬甸國防軍總司總司令敏昂萊（Min Aung Hlaing）發動軍事政變，拘禁總統溫敏及國務資政翁山蘇姬（Aung San Suu Kyi），推翻民選政府，對全國民主聯盟（National League for Democracy）及民運人士展開逮捕、關押及迫害，反抗勢力集結，全民不服從運動擴大，軍民武力衝突升高，激化國內各區武裝攻擊，全國進入全面衝突情勢，出現失敗國家的樣貌，政治、經濟及安全的惡化，並已擴散境外成為區域安全威脅。緬甸危機受到國際高度關切，視東協為危機解決的核心角色，寄望東協協助緬甸軍方中止暴行並恢復緬甸民主。東協無意訴諸強制措施，而是採取對話及勸服等非對抗、非介入途徑。東協回應深受東協方式（ASEAN Way）的影響，並受到東協中心性（ASEAN Centrality）的檢視，兩者存在辯證關係。本文將探討緬甸軍事政變已擴大為國家及區域安全危機，以及研析影響東協回應的決策因素。

On 1 February 2021, Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, seized power from its civilian government, leading to a series of mass protests escalating into national violence and turmoil amid the conflict and resistance among the military, opposition and other military actors. The heated political uprising, economic and social system collapse and unchecked COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the country to the brink of failed state status for lack of order, governance, and security. The violence committed by the Myanmar coup has caused a comprehensive concern form international community against the violation of human rights, fundamental freedom, and democracy under the military suppression. The political and humanitarian crisis is a blow to the stability and security not only of the conflict state but also of Southeast Asia region as internal chaos is increasingly translated into a regional one. ASEAN has been given full recognition and support by the international to play the primary actor to tackle the crisis. The response from the regional bloc has been under review from ＂ASEAN centrality＂ and a test to itself in terms of ＂ASEAN way,＂ where the noninterference principle lays the foundation for the unity and operation of the organization. The dialectic argument between ASEAN Way and Centrality will be explored on the Myanmar crisis.