推廣電動車輛之電力需求預測與環境衝擊分析

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS FOR PROMOTING ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN TAIWAN

從我國溫室氣體和空氣汙染物的排放量報告中發現運輸業的占比相對頗高，故我國在減少溫室氣體和空氣汙染物排放量的壓力下，勢必須加強訂定許多相關的因應政策。其中，以2008年推動之電動車輛汰換燃油車輛的政策，最受產業和民眾的注意。本文以時間序列模型預測短期（2020年底）和長期（2025年底）電動車輛成長數量，並假設電動車輛使用綠電、電動車輛使用灰電、和繼續使用燃油車輛等三種情境，檢測我國綠電供給壓力和對環境的影響。實證結果發現假設在當前再生能源發展政策成功且可完全供給電動車輛使用的前提下，推論綠電是可充分供應電動車輛對電力的需求。但癥結是如何能確保電動車輛的電力是來自於綠電而不是來自於灰電，以及其他產業綠電需求對電動車輛綠電需求的排擠效應。此外，對環境衝擊而言，除電動車輛使用綠電情境呈絕對優勢外，其餘情境都會對環境產生衝擊。所以綠電供應的基礎建設發展是否能成功，實乃改善環境衝擊之關鍵所在。

It is found that the transportation industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in Taiwan, therefore, under the pressure, the government decide to strengthen the policy of replacing fuel-fueled vehicles with electric vehicles. In order to test the pressure of local green power supply and to detect the environmental impacts, the present paper developed a time-series model to predict the growth of electric vehicles in the short-term (end of 2020) and long-term (end of 2025). The empirical results found that green electricity can fully supply the electricity demand of electric vehicles, assuming that the current renewable energy development policy is successful and can be used to supply electric vehicles only. However, the crux of the matter is how to ensure that the electricity for electric vehicles comes from green electricity instead of gray electricity. In addition, the crowding out effect on the demand for green electricity from other industries is also a difficult problem. In terms of environmental impact, all other scenarios, except the scenario where electric vehicles fully use green electricity, will have serious impacts on the environment. Therefore, the successful development of green power supply is the key to solve both the problems of promoting electric vehicles and improving the environmental quality.