後冷戰時期美中泰三方互動分析：一個時間序列分析的途徑

The Interaction of the U.S.-China-Thailand Triangle in the Post-Cold War Era: A Time-Series Analysis Approach

本文主要關注後冷戰時期，面對中國崛起，美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響？本文主要研究問題為：一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何？二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響？三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響？透過時間序列分析，統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應，而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外，統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中，美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應，顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。

Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the USChina interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.