今天拆大埔，明天換政府？臺灣民主化後的土地開發與選舉，1993-2015

Will People Evicted Today Evict the Government Tomorrow? Land Development and Votes after the Democratization of Taiwan, 1993–2015

本文以1993至2015年臺灣縣市層級的土地開發、空間使用以及選舉得票追蹤數據，固定效果迴歸模型驗證土地開發與地方政治關係。實證結果顯示，在理性選擇邏輯下，國民黨籍地方首長執政時，偏好徵收土地、開發住宅、商業與辦公室空間，民進黨則傾向非住宅，例如：工業用地開發；不同的土地與空間開發策略顯著增進兩黨地方選舉的得票率。不同於發展型國家與都市政權理論對戰後臺灣政府開發土地的分析，本文以民主化後的縣市土地開發數據，說明臺灣政府的土地與空間開發策略，是執政者尋求政治結盟，提升政治生存機會的政策工具。

The study used county-level panel data in Taiwan from 1993 to 2015 to investigate: could land development improve the probability of ruling elites’ political survival? Through the fixed effects regression model examination, we found that (1) comparing to county mayors from Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), mayors from Kuomintang (KMT) inclined to launch land development and stimulate real estate evelopment through housing, and pro-capital spatial development olicies; mayors from DPP, contrarily, induced non-housing spatial olicies such as industrial development more often; and that (2) both candidates from two political parties got more votes due to their land and spatial developments. We, thus, pointed out the logic of political survival was the main mechanism to explain how the land and spaces were developed in Taiwan after WWII; land and spatial developments were the policies that the political elite manipulated to build their winning coalitions and to maximize the probability of political survival.