政策論述與日本少子化對策的演化

Policy Discourses and the Evolution of Policies toward Low Fertility in Japan

這篇論文以論述制度論解釋1990年至今日本少子化政策的變遷。1990年代相關部會專家所主張將少子化歸因於女性無法兼顧職涯與育兒的「兩立論述」形塑政策長期走向。2001年後隨著人口危機惡化，政策層級顯著提升，政策論述進一步演化為「工作與生活調和論述」，擴大到勞動力市場等多重領域。在長期穩定的政策論述下，實際執行高度取決於首相權力穩定性，要到第二次安倍內閣後才有實質進展。經驗證據顯示主導政策論述可能低估日本家戶結構的多樣性，影響了政策成效。本文結果顯示對政策影響的整體解釋必須納入對政策論述的方向與長期影響的討論。

The purpose of this paper is to adopt discursive institutionalism to explain the evolution of Japanese policies toward low fertility since 1990. I argue that the dominant discourse formed by experts affiliated with the Ministry of Health in the 1990s has had irreducible impact on the long-term policy evolution. Between 1990 and 2001 the dominant discourse of “compatibility between childrearing and work” that attributes low fertility to the unfriendly environment for females was formed and dominated the policy field. After year 2001, this discourse further evolved to a “work life balance” discourse that had broader impacts and inspired more coordinated policy actions. However, the unstable governments before 2012 prevented the forbad Japanese government from taking more effective actions. Not until the second Abe cabinet did Japanese policies toward low fertility make more progress. ITo adequately evaluate the Japanese policies toward low fertility, the power and limitations of the dominant policy discourses should not be overlooked.