中國「一帶一路」的進展與影響，2013～2021

The Progress and Influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, 2013~2021

本文分析中國的「一帶一路」計畫從 2013 年 10 月開始推動迄今（2021年結束）的進展與影響。主要的發現有：第一，「一帶一路」的主要投資項目是以「能源開發」為最大宗，中國官方在宣傳中最為強調的「各種交通基礎建設」反而為次之；第二，「一帶一路」在各國的進展堪稱順利，爭議情況為少數；第三，「一帶一路」並未顯著增進參與國家的經濟發展，並未顯著拉開參與國與美國之間在外交政策利益上的相似程度，並未顯著使參與國的民主政治在競爭性和參與性上有所下降，也並未使參與國的貪腐情況惡化；第四，「一帶一路」的顯著影響在於提高參與國人民的生活品質，拉遠參與國與中國之間在外交政策利益上的相似程度，還有使參與國的民主政治在政治權利和公民自由上有所下降；最後，中國透過「一帶一路」所取得的最重要的政治槓桿，應該是在於使部分國家陷入積欠中國鉅額債務的「債務陷阱」上面。整體而言，要確認「一帶一路」對各國和世界秩序的影響，最主要應該還是要在那些積欠中國大量債務的國家的政策變化上來找答案。

This study analyzes the progress and influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from its starting year 2013 till the end of 2021. The main findings include: First, most of the total BRI investments goes to the energy sector, and the transportation infrastructures that are most emphasized by the Chinese goverment are actually the second largest part. Second, BRI projects go well in the participating countries in general with few sporadic controversies. Third, empirical evidence shows that BRI does not significantly improve participating countries’ economic development, make their foreign policy ideal points farther away from the United States, deteriorate their degree of democracy in terms of competition and participation, or worsen their degree of corruption. Fourth, however, BRI does significantly increase the life quality in the participating countries, making their foreign policy ideal points farther away from China, and lower their degree of democracy in terms of political rights and civil liberty. Lastly, the most important leverage that China exploits from BRI is to make certain countries fall into the debt trap and thus more likely to behave in accordance with China’s national interests. Overall, to find out the influence of BRI on the participating countries and the world order, we should begin with investigating the policy change in countries that owe China considerable debts.