跨國人權非政府組織與拉丁美洲民主轉型

Transnational Human Rights NGOs and Democratic Transition in Latin America

拉丁美洲許多國家在第三波民主化浪潮中歷經政體轉型，在比較政治學界中為一重要的研究課題。有別於既有文獻從總體層次、或是國際層次的因素來探討政體變遷，本論文主張跨國人權非政府組織網絡對於民主轉型具有重要的促進效果。本研究以拉丁美洲18個威權體制（1969～1995）的資料為基礎，運用量化方法對於上述主張進行系統性的驗證。本研究的實證分析顯示，在其他條件不變的情況下，一個威權國家若有愈密集的跨國人權非政府組織動員網絡，則該國愈有可能歷經民主轉型。綜合而言，本論文的創新之處在於透過嚴謹的實證分析驗證了跨國人權非政府組織與民主轉型的理論關係，為拉美民主化文獻提出更細膩的補充觀點，同時有助於吾人從不同角度深入理解新興民主國家的政治發展過程。

The regime change of many Latin American countries under the Third Wave of democratization has been a crucial topic in the field of comparative politics. Unlike previous literature that examines how democratic transition is shaped by macro-level or international-level factors, this study argues that transnational human rights NGOs networks play a significant factor in promoting democratic transition. Using data of 18 authoritarian regimes in Latin America between 1969 and 1995, the quantitative analysis demonstrates that a higher level of transnational human rights NGOs network density in an authoritarian regime is associated with a higher likelihood of democratic transition. Overall, this study contributes to the literature of Latin American democratization by providing more nuanced insights and empirical evidence about the relationship between transnational human rights NGOs and democratic transition. Moreover, this study also facilitates a better understanding of political development in new democracies.