展望尹錫悅總統時代南韓與波蘭、匈牙利的經貿關係

Prospects for South Korea’s Economic Relations with Hungary and Poland under President Yoon Suk-yeol

文在寅(Moon Jae-in)總統任內在對外關係上重視減少對美中貿易的倚賴，所以積極發展與新興經濟體的政經關係。維西格勒集團四國(Visegrad Four，簡稱V4)因而獲得文在寅政府的青睞，這可從他在2021年11月特地造訪布達佩斯(Budapest)與V4四國總統舉行峰會得以窺出。當然這也是因為南韓企業視V4國家為進軍歐洲聯盟(EU)市場的生產基地有密切的關係。韓企的投資尤其偏好波蘭與匈牙利，並聚焦於電動汽車的電池相關的生產。同時，文在寅政府已發現V4四國是南韓出口核能與武器的極具潛力的市場。
今年5月尹錫悅(Yoon Suk-yeol)就任南韓總統，這不僅代表著領導人的更易，1而且是政權轉移，從自由進步勢力轉為保守勢力。本文主旨即聚焦於韓國與中歐新興經濟體維西格勒集團四國(Visegrad Four，簡稱V4)間經貿互動，尤其將深入剖析韓國與波蘭、匈牙利的經貿關係，首先概述韓國與歐盟在FTA實施後近十年的經貿關係，進而探討韓國近年越來越重視V4國家的原因，並以韓國對波蘭、匈牙利的經貿政策與策略為例，解析韓商對波蘭增加投資的目的、現況，終而是未來展望，特別是剖析尹錫悅的世界觀暨其所期望南韓在國際政經所扮演的角色以及國際新變數對南韓與V4國家經貿的衝擊。
尹錫悅比文在寅更加重視與歐洲國家的關係，因為他將EU視為其競選承諾的將南韓提升至全球樞紐國家(global pivotal state)的國際地位的重要表徵。2他有意將南韓外交跨越印太地區，擴及歐盟。所以，他上任後的首度出訪國外就是去參加北約(NATO)峰會，成為有史以來第一個參加北約峰會的南韓總統。32022年7月尹錫悅在結束北約峰會和推銷外交後表示東歐和北歐國家認爲韓國在核電、綠色技術、半導體、新一代電動汽車電池相關領域的能力處於世界最高水平，希望在相關領域和韓國進行合作。
之前中國帶路倡議與川普因素本已促進亞歐間的互動。俄烏戰爭使EU與俄羅斯間以能源與投資合作為基礎的經濟互利難以為繼，同時也加深了EU對美國的安全倚賴。俄烏戰爭爆發也加速了亞歐政經安關係的強化。當前EU的最新對印太戰略既含括了原有的制衡中國大陸的目標，也包括了對抗俄羅斯的新主旨（盼亞洲國家加入其能源制裁俄羅斯的策略）。
2022年7月歐洲議會通過支持天然氣和核能發電，列為氣候友好型的綠色投資項目，使未來的能源投資者，能夠將其貼上綠色標籤得到獎勵的資助。6這對南韓進軍V4國家核能市場帶來利多。
由於俄羅斯與烏克蘭爆發衝突，波蘭向烏克蘭提供武器。波蘭基於安全考量急於填補軍援烏克蘭所產生戰鬥力缺口，於是2022年6月波蘭陸軍和空軍評估團訪問韓國進行考察，參觀了韓國航空宇宙產業公司(KAI)、現代Rotem、LIG NEX1等等武器公司並洽談出口條款。波蘭很有可能會引進KAI的FA-50戰鬥機、現代Rotem公司的K2坦克、韓華防務公司的K9自行火炮等武器。

Asia-EU economic relations have entered into a new era, given that the EU's free trade agreement (FTA) deal with South Korea was implemented in 2011, then the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force on 1 February 2019 plus China’s growing economic interactions with EU, notwithstanding pending Sino-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). Against this background, Northeast Asia has now viewed Visegrád Four (V4) countries, namely, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic,8 as a gateway to the EU. Investors from Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan have greatly increased their investments in the V4 countries. Currently, the EU is Korea’s third-largest trading partner and the largest foreign investor for the country, while Korea is the EU’s 9th largest trading partner. South Korea-EU bilateral trade volume in 2020 recorded about 103 billion dollars, an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year, despite the negative impact of the pandemics.
As for South Korea’s relations with V4 countries, the second-largest market in Europe with many Korean firms in the fields of batteries and electric vehicles increasingly relocating their European production bases there due to geographical advantages, South Korean conglomerates focus their investment on Hungary and Poland, regarding the two countries as manufacturing hubs to tap into the EU market as a whole, electric vehicles (EV) inter alia. As a result, South Korea is one of Hungary's most important investors, with its investment of more than US$5 billion in Hungary to date and its capital investments in 2019 had surpassed those of Germany, a key trade partner for Hungary.10 According to the Polish Investments and Trade Agency (PAIH), there are currently around 260 Korean companies operating in Poland, making South Korea one of the largest non-EU foreign investors in the country. Thanks to the LG investment, Poland has become the main centre for the production of lithium-ion batteries for the automotive industry in Europe, given the commencement of the plant’s construction in October 2017. Another salient example is that SK Innovation announced in March 2019 to build a plant that manufactures lithium-ion battery separator (LiBS), the main material for electric vehicles, in Silesia, Poland. The annual production volume of the new factory in Poland will be 340 million square meters with an investment of some 430 billion won. The most recent representative example to show that South Korea is paying special attention to V4 is President Moon Jae-in’s Budapest summit with V4 countries in November 2021. On the sidelines of the meetings, a business forum, the first of its kind, was also held to explore business opportunities for Korean firms in the dynamic economic region.11
In this paper, the author intends to explore South Korea’s economic relations with V4 countries, in particular Hungary and Poland in terms of trade and investment as case studies.12 It begins with a briefing on South Korea-EU economic relations since the implementation of their bilateral FTA in 2011, then South Korea-V4 economic relations with a focus on South Korea’s economic relations with Hungary and Poland from the South Korean perspective primarily, as well as Hungary and Poland relevant policies, and finally future prospects and challenges of the bilateral economic relationship under President Yoon Suk-yeol.