土耳其在敘利亞北部出兵行動的戰略思考

Turkey’s Strategic Considerations on Military Deployments in Northern Syria

本文以角色理論的分析架構探討土耳其於敘利亞北部所開展的三次軍事行動，包括：2016年「幼發拉底之盾行動」、2018年「橄欖枝行動」與2019年「和平之泉行動」。角色理論探討國家與他者互動過程中「驅動菁英的行為」，同時討論「國內政治與制度」，如何透過領導人而呈現出外交政策的樣貌，究係關心他者反應的「角色接受者」，或是強調自我認同的「角色創造者」？是強調國家利益的「獨立角色」？亦或是在乎他者認同的「互動角色」？據此，本文第一部分將從角色理論與土耳其過去的角色定位談起，進而分析三次行動下，土國所展現出「獨立角色」的「角色接受者」，土國的角色扮演也從過去的「橋樑者」，轉變為有別於過去的積極獨立角色，甚至是區域的領導者。同時，國內政治制度修改成總統制後，更增強總統的權力，未來，總統仍是土國中東政策最重要的一環。

Using the theoretical analysis of“role theory,”this paper deals with Turkey’s military deployments, including Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016, Operation Olive Branch in 2018, and Operation Peace Spring in 2019. Scholars of role theory focus on the interactive process between“State”and“Others”. They not only analyze“what motivates political elites’behavior,”but also discuss domestic politics and institution and their impacts on leaders and foreign policies. In response to other states’expectation, there are two types of roles: the independent role that is based on national interests/ role making, and the interactive role that is based on others’role expectation/ role-taking. In order to examine the role during the military deployments, this paper starts with Turkey’s role conception in the past. Through analysis of negotiation with the United States and Russia, it concludes that Tukey plays mostly as an independent role taker. Its role-play starts from bridging the east and the west, and then finally becoming a regional leader. Additionally, it is important to note that after the constitutional reform, the presidential system further enhanced the president’s role and will continue to have effects on Turkish Middle East policy.