第二次安倍政權長期穩定執政之研究：以非民意支持導向的政策為焦點

A Study on the Long-term Stability of the Second Abe Administration in Japan: Focussing on Non-responsive Policies

第二次安倍政權為何能夠長期穩定執政？以往的研究大多從國政選舉的勝利與官邸主導的確立等面向來解釋。本文無意否定或質疑以往的研究成果，而是擬以「非民意支持導向的政策」（non-responsive policy）為切入點，解釋第二次安倍政權長期穩定執政的原因。 以往的研究認為第二次安倍政權與第一次最大的不同，在於致力推出迎合民意的經濟政策。但是，本文發現安倍首相在第二次政權期間，卻也陸續推出非民意支持導向的政策。安倍首相在推出政策之後，內閣支持度雖然一度下降，但是又會再度回升，此種模式一再地出現，是以往少見的現象。安倍首相為何執意推出「非民意支持導向的政策」，以及如何維持（提升）內閣的支持度，是本文探討的主要目的。 本文研究發現，安倍首相維持內閣支持度的策略有二：一是在國政選舉前提出迎合民意的經濟政策，再以勝選後的新民意為藉，推動非民意支持導向的政策；二是安倍首相在第二次政權期間，藉由不斷地提出新政策或政策構想，塑造出內閣一直正在做事的形象，藉以減緩非民意支持政策的衝擊，同時也維持政權整體的好感度。

Why was the second Abe administration able to govern with stability for a long period of time? Previous studies have mostly explained it by looking at the victory of the national elections and the dominance of the Prime Minister’s office. This article does not intend to deny or question the previous studies; however, it will focus on “non-responsive policy” to explain the reason for the long-term stability of the second Abe administration. Previous studies have shown that the biggest difference between the second Abe administration and the first is that it worked on economic policies that catered to public opinion. However, this article found that during the second administration, Prime Minister Abe also successively promoted non-responsive policies. After the implementation of non-responsive policies, the support of the cabinet would fall; however, it was not long before the rate of support rose again. This pattern appeared repeatedly, which had rarely been seen in Japanese politics before. The main purpose of this article is to explore the reasons why Prime Minister Abe insisted on promoting “non-responsive policies” and how he maintained cabinet support. This article found that Prime Minister Abe employed two strategies to maintain cabinet support. First, he would implement economic policies that catered to public opinion before the national elections, and then took advantage of the new public opinion after winning the election to promote non-responsive policies. Second, by promoting new policies or policy ideas, the second Abe administration shaped an image of being a proactive cabinet, which slowed down the impact of the non-responsive policies, and at the same time maintained a good impression of the regime in the eyes of the public.