網紅經濟：檢驗觀眾留言特質和直播主行銷策略，對營收之預測價值

Internet Celebrity Economy: Exploring the Value of Viewers' Comment Features and Live Streamers' Marketing Strategies in Forecasting Revenue

過去有關直播主的行銷策略與營收預測之研究十分匱乏，且忽略考慮直播主異質性之影響。本研究應用層級貝氏模型，檢驗在考慮直播主異質性下，觀眾的留言特質和直播主行銷策略對觀眾送禮行為之預測價值。本研究針對10部美食直播共38,183筆時間資料進行分析，發現留言特質和直播主行銷策略對觀眾送禮行為之效果主要受到直播主異質性的跨層次影響。此顯示過去忽略直播主異質性影響的研究結論可能有偏誤。最後，本研究提出的模型對直播主營收有很好的預測力。

Few past studies have tackled the relationship between marketing strategies and revenue forecasts of live streamers, not to mention the influence of streamer heterogeneity. This study applies the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model to examine the predictive effects of viewers' comments and streamer' behaviors on viewers' gift-sending behavior in live streaming while considering the effect of streamer heterogeneity. In particular, we empirically analyze 38,183 samples of time data from 10 food live-stream samples. We find that the effects of viewers' comment features and streamers' marketing strategies on viewers' gift-sending behavior are mainly influenced by the cross-level effect of streamers' heterogeneities. These results reveal that existing live-streaming studies might have overlooked the impact of streamers' heterogeneities, offering only biased conclusions. Finally, the model proposed in this study has good predictive accuracy for live streamer revenue.