泰國民主化的逆流：以2020-2021年的學生運動為例

The Reverse Wave of Thai Democratization: 2020-2021 Student Movements

"1974年從葡萄牙開始的第三波民主化（The Third Wave of Democratization），在其後的十餘年間有約三十個國家從威權轉型成為民主國家，泰國也在1992年展開民主化的歷程。然而從2000年左右開始，許多民主國家或因為治理表現不佳，或因為出現威權統治，因而爆發大規模的抗爭運動造成民主倒退，形成第三波民主化逆流或是第三波獨裁化（The Third wave of Autocratization），泰國也深陷在這一波的浪潮之中。進入二十一世紀之後，泰國在2006與2014年兩度出現軍事政變。2014年政變上台的巴育（Prayuth Chan-o-cha）在維持威權統治五年之後，才於2019年透過一場不公平的選舉當選總理。但因為在選後解散未來前進黨（Future Forward Party, FFR）引發泰國年輕學子的不滿，而於2021年2月起發動一共四波的學生運動，希望可以終結泰國的獨裁政治。但由於泰式民主（Thai-style democracy）的論述在泰國有其歷史根源，傳統的保守勢力牢不可破，短期之內泰國真正的民主恐將難以實現。"

"The Third Wave of Democratization started in Portugal in 1974. Thus, in the following decades, 30 countries have transformed from authoritarian to democratic regimes. Thailand embarked on the process of democratization in 1992. However, since 2000, large-scale protests have broken out in many democratic countries, either because of poor governance or the emergence of authoritarian rule, and formed the third reverse wave of democratization or the third wave of autocratization. Thailand is also in deep water. After entering the 21st century, there had been two military coups in Thailand in 2006 and 2014. Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who came to power in 2014, had maintained his authoritarian rule for five years before becoming elected prime minister through an unfair election in 2019. Nevertheless, the dissolution of the Future Forward Party after the election caused dissatisfaction among young Thai students. As a result, four waves of student movements had been launched since February 2021, hoping to end the dictatorship in Thailand. Unfortunately, since the Thai-style democracy has historical roots, and the traditional conservative forces are unbreakable, the democratization in Thailand may be hard to achieve in the short term."