外資銀行在中國：最大熵空間推論方法的應用

The Foreign Bank in China: The Application of Maximum Entropy Method

探討外資銀行進入中國大陸的區位分析，一直都是一項重要的研究課題。本文嘗試以一項新的空間推論技術－最大熵方法（maximum entropy method），直接測量外資銀行在中國的空間分布狀況，以強調空間預測在外資銀行研究上的重要性。本文共蒐集中國大陸39家外資銀行共970家總行、分行以及支行的地理位置，結合各地區的總體環境因素，進行外資銀行在中國大陸的空間分布測量。分析結果顯示，外資銀行整體區位選擇的機率分布相當穩定。現有外資銀行進駐的行政區域，不僅其未來吸引外資銀行進駐的機率較高，且鄰近地區吸引外資銀行進駐的機率同樣較高。最後，對外資銀行區位選擇最有貢獻的總體環境因素將包括「人口密度」、「外資企業工業總產值佔總工業產值比例」以及「實際利用外資」，說明「追隨顧客理論」與「市場機會理論」在外資區位選擇研究的重要性。

"This paper aims to measure the spatial probability distribution of the foreign banks into China with a new method, the maximum entropy method. We introduce the new spatial measuring tool to expand the application of foreign bank analysis in China. We employ the maximum entropy method to measure the spatial information by measuring exact location and environmental factors. Using the locations of 970 foreign banks' headquarters, branches and sub-branches in China, we find that the spatial probability distribution of foreign bank entry is stable. Further, the entry probability of a district nearby the district in which a foreign bank has been located is increasing. Moreover, the population density, the ratio of gross industrial output value of foreign-funded enterprises to total output value, and the actually utilized foreign capital play the most important roles in driving foreign bank entry. Finally, our findings both support the follow-customer hypothesis and market opportunity hypothesis."