臺灣白色恐怖時期，政治案件終審結果之解析：以死刑判決與無罪判決為例

Explaining Trial Outcomes of Political Cases under the White Terror in Taiwan: An Empirical Analysis of Death Sentences and Verdicts of Not Guilty

在白色恐怖統治時期，為何不同的政治犯被審判後會有不同境遇？針對這個研究問題，先前研究大多採取質性途徑，並未針對不同解釋因素的相對重要性提出量化的系統性評估。為了補充既有文獻的闕漏，本文利用《臺灣轉型正義資料庫》之資料，採取Heckman二階段多項單元機率模型之研究設計，解析影響1947年到1992年政治案件被判死刑、無罪以及其他種類刑罰的因素。實證分析結果顯示，與其他種類的刑罰相比，若政治案件的終審日期在韓戰爆發後六個月期間內，受裁判人有較高的可能性被判處死刑，但也有較高的可能性被判處無罪。其次，本研究顯示，蔣介石曾核覆過的政治案件，其終審結果有較高的機率被判死刑，但對於終審結果是否會被判無罪，則沒有顯著的影響。第三，政治案件的審判時間愈長，被判無罪的可能性會降低，被判死刑的機率會升高。本研究為國民黨在白色恐怖時期的統治提供不同的理解視角，希望能為臺灣的轉型正義提供若干啟發。

"What explains differences in outcomes of political trials during the White Terror in Taiwan? Many previous studies have addressed this question using qualitative approaches, yet no studies have provided quantitative tests of the different explanations. To fill this gap in the literature, this study relies on the Taiwan Transitional Justice Database to examine the determinants of death sentences, not guilty verdicts, and residual outcomes in political trials from 1947 to 1992. Statistical results from a Heckman two-step multinomial probit regression indicate that defendants whose final trial was held within six months after the outbreak of the Korean War were more likely to receive a death sentence and were more likely to receive a not guilty verdict, compared to the residual category of outcomes. The empirical evidence suggests that cases that were ratified and reviewed by Chiang Kai-shek were more likely to receive a death sentence, compared to a not guilty verdict and compared to the residual category of outcomes. Furthermore, net of controls, longer trials were more likely to end with a death sentence and were less likely to end with a not guilty verdict, compared to the residual category of outcomes. This study contributes to the literature by shedding light on the Chinese Nationalist Party's rule during the White Terror and by providing insights for transitional justice in Taiwan."