莫拉克颱風災後，住宅重建的進程與永久屋政策的評估

Housing Recovery and Free-Permanent Housing Policy Assessment after Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

2009年莫拉克颱風對臺灣中南部造成嚴重衝擊。在災後，政府與慈善團體合作，提出以永久屋為主、組合屋為輔的住宅重建政策，提供免費永久住宅，鼓勵受災居民離開安全堪虞地區，並加速其重建進程。然而，免費永久屋政策是否加速重建進程？是否弭平脆弱性因子？不同援建團體的重建途徑差異是否影響後續住宅品質？這些問題攸關免費永久屋政策的評估，值得研究者探索。本研究運用國家災害防救科技中心四期六年的追蹤資料，透過追蹤資料迴歸模型來評估永久屋政策對住宅重建的影響。本研究發現，永久屋政策可加快初期的住宅重建；但在災後第六年，永久屋的品質已較初期劣化。和美國經驗不同，災損並未對研究樣本的住宅重建進程產生影響。此外，本研究也證實永久屋政策可減少災前社會差異在災後的擴大：如所得對永久屋申請者的重建進程，並無顯著影響。相較之下，未申請永久屋家戶的住宅重建進程受所得影響：所得越高，重建進展越快。至於不同援建團體所援建的住宅，居民對其品質的評價有所差異。

"Typhoon Morakot left enormous impacts on central and southern parts of Taiwan in 2009. After the emergency, governments collaborated with charity organizations to assist impacted households by providing free-permanent housing, enabling households can relocate to safer locations and speeding up recovery. However, the effectiveness of free-permanent housing policy is still under evaluation. This study applies the panel data collected by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2015. Panel data regression models are applied to evaluate the free-permanent housing policy after Typhoon Morakot. Analytical results reveal that the free-permanent housing policy accelerated housing recovery progress in the short term. However, free-permanent housing had suffered quality degradation six years later. The damage level had no significant impact on the housing recovery trajectory. Analytical results also demonstrate that free-permanent housing policy eliminates pre-disaster inequality after the event. In contrast, income had a significant influence on housing recovery for households without free-permanent housing. Finally, free-permanent housing built by Red-Cross had higher housing quality than that built by Tzuchi or World Vision."