應用系統動態學，模擬高速鐵路新竹車站地區都市發展

System Dynamics Model for Simulating Urban Development in High-Speed Rail Station Area: A Hsinchu Case Study

近年來高速鐵路車站地區都市發展的影響因素備受關注，過往的研究經常應用計量經濟學模型或是空間互動模型以分析高速鐵路對都市發展的影響。然而根據系統動態學的觀點，都市是一個由人口、就業、住宅、運輸等次系統組成的複雜系統，過往的研究方法較難系統性的反應眾多影響因素的關聯性。為了填補該研究缺口，本研究以目前國內郊區高鐵車站地區人口成長率最高的新竹縣竹北市為例，建構高鐵車站地區的都市發展系統動態模型，並進行政策情境模擬分析。研究結論可歸納成以下三點：(1)製造業與三級產業就業機會、高速鐵路通勤臺北負擔能力、新竹科學園區工作可及性對竹北市的設籍人口和房價會呈正面影響；(2)竹北市的房價對設籍人口有負面的反饋影響，但是影響效果有限；(3)在竹北市設籍人口增長時，從住宅需求面管理理想銷貨期間和投資住宅需求不僅能防止住宅市場的過度供給，還能穩定房價，進而降低房價所得比。最後，本研究亦提供類似區位的高鐵車站地區於產業、運輸、居住面向的都市發展政策建議。

"The causes of High-speed rail (HSR) station area urban development has received extensive attention. Previous studies generally applied the econometric or spatial interaction models to examine the impact of HSR on urban development. However, from the perspective of system dynamics (SD), the city is a complex system comprising of sub-systems such as population, employment, housing and transportation, and those methods do not reflect the systematic interactions among variables. To fill this research gap, this study applies a system dynamics model to simulate urban development policy scenarios of HSR Hsinchu Station (Zhubei City, Hsinchu county), with the highest population growth rate in Taiwan’s suburban HSR station areas. Several policy scenarios reveal three major findings: 1) employment opportunities in manufacturing and tertiary industries, HSR commuting affordability (from Zhubei to Taipei) , and Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) accessibility positively affect population and housing price; 2) housing price negatively feedbacks population growth, but has limited influence, and 3) managing the desired inventory coverage of housing and investment housing demand not only helps to reduce oversupplies of housing but also maintains housing prices and priceto-income ratios. In conclusion, this study recommends industry, transportation, housing aspect urban development strategies HSR station areas in similar locations of Taiwan."