氣候變遷、破壞性創新與日本－中東政經關係

"Climate Change, Disruptive Innovation and Japan- Middle East Economic Relations"

進入21世紀以來，由於國際環境的變遷，日本與中東關係出現重大變化。氣候變遷（climate change）與破壞性創新（disruptive innovation）堪稱是兩大關鍵變數。由於溫室氣體（Greenhouse Gas）排放所導致的氣候异常現象越來越明顯，南北極冰山的快速融化、海平面的升高與異常高溫與暴雨等，民間與國際環保團體的排山倒海的壓力終而使各國政府不得不開始推動更積極的政策，從被動的節能轉為積極的減碳措施。在此背景下，兩項破壞性創新科技應運而生，且都來自美國。首先是油頁岩（shale oil）技術的突破使美國得以大幅生產低成本的油氣，瞬間由全球最大的石油消費國與主要石油進口國蛻變為世界最大石油生產國，石油市場也出現供過于求的現象，導致油價暴跌，嚴重衝擊既有的石油出口國家的經濟與財政，以波斯灣海灣國家合作理事會（Gulf Cooperation Council，簡稱GCC）國家為主要成員的石油輸出國組織與夥伴國（Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus，簡稱OPEC＋）可謂首當其衝，被迫減產以維持油價穩定。正因為如此，沙烏地阿拉伯與阿拉伯聯合大公國（United Arab Emirates，簡稱UAE或阿聯酋）等長期以來高度依賴石油的中東國家被迫進行經濟改革與產業多元化，擁有尖端科技的日本遂被這些國家視為重要的策略合作夥伴。另一項重大破壞性創新科技出現在汽車業，即美國特斯拉（Tesla）電動汽車技術的突破，使得電動車成為未來汽車的主流，其他的新能源車（new energy ehicles，簡稱NEVs）或稱替代燃料車（alternative fuel vehicles）還包括混合動力車（hybrid）、氫能車（Hydrogen）與氫電混能車等。這是針對化石燃料車排放溫室氣體所帶來的氣候變遷所做出的回應，越來越多國家承諾將禁止化石燃料車上路。挪威與斯裏蘭卡迄今是全球最早開始禁止化石燃料車行駛的兩個國家，擬于2025年即實施該項禁令。而歐洲宣布2025年起禁售燃油車。此一石油消費日益減緩的趨勢對石油產國而言是項未來利空，而屋漏偏遭連夜雨，2019年又爆發新冠肺炎（COVID-19），航空公司紛紛停飛或減班，重創航空業，使全球石油消費銳減，前景堪慮。2019年12月全球最大原油出口商沙烏地阿美石油公司（Saudi Aramco）成為世界第一家擁有2兆美元市值的超級企業。儘管如此，根據英國石油（BP）2021年7月發佈的能源統計，由于新冠疫情擴大導致的經濟活動萎縮，創出第二次世界大戰後的最大降幅。2020年幾乎全部國家和地區的能源消耗均低于前一年，其中佔到降幅逾7成的是石油。由于能源一直扮演日本與中東關係為主軸，本文主旨在剖析日本與中東產油國間的政經關係，尤其聚焦於氣候變遷與破壞性創新對日本與中東產油國間關係的衝擊。沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國與卡達是長期以來日本對中東外交重點。沙烏地阿拉伯是日本的最大石油進口國，UAE則是日本第二大石油進口來源。這兩國所進口的石油加起來佔日本進口石油的一半以上。2014年上半年這兩國的皇太子先後訪問日本，凸顯兩國對日本重視之一斑。卡達則是日本天然氣的最大進口來源。

"With the advent of the 21st century, international relations have undergone tremendous changes. Climate change and disruptive innovation have emerged as determining driving forces behind the transformation of global politics and economics. Many governments have revealed net-zero carbon emissions goals and are beginning to shift away from fossil fuels, including oil and gas. Against this background, oil-dependent countries in the Middle East have been driven to diversify their economies and have all set ambitious renewable energy goals. As a result, Japan’s economic relations with those oil-exporting economies have been galvanized by climate change and disruptive technologies such as shale oil and the innovation of electric vehicles by Tesla, a departure from the traditional bilateral relationship between Japan those Middle East countries was primarily one way, namely energy-scarce Japan simply was a large importer of oil from those Middle East countries. In this paper, the author intends to explore Japan’s economic relations with oil-dependent countries in the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. It begins with an explanation why oil-dependent economies in the Middle East have aggressively approached Japan in the second decade of this century, then examine Japan’s economic relations with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates(UAE) and Qatar respectively, and finally future prospects and challenges of those bilateral economic interactions. For example, as Japanese companies look to build a supply chain to import clean energy rather than fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia is a promising partner. The oil-rich kingdom is now trying to take the lead in supplying hydrogen-based products as the world shifts to low-carbon energy sources. Saudi Aramco and Japanese companies including Mitsubishi Corp. and JGC took part in a demonstration project that shipped ""emissions-free"" ammonia to Japan in 2020."