東南亞地緣政治秩序塑造中的中印因素──影響與前景

The Sino-Indian Factor in the Formation of Geopolitical Order in Southeast Asia: Influence and Prospects

東南亞地區長期以來一直是大國縱橫捭闔的重要區域。該地區地處亞洲與大洋洲、印度洋與太平洋的「十字路口」，扼守全球能源重要通道；陸地上也分別與中國和印度兩個大國山水相連。自2000年以來，中國通過貿易和投資已成為東盟最重要的經濟夥伴。2013中國實施「一帶一路」倡議以來，東南亞地區在成為中國與沿線國家開展貿易合作的主要區域的同時，也成為東盟（ASEAN）最大的貿易夥伴國，東南亞地區逐漸在「一帶一路」中佔據著舉足輕重的地位。印度自2014年莫迪（Narendra Modi）上臺之後，將20世紀90年代初提出的「東望」政策（Look East policy）進一步強化為「東進」（Act East）政策，尋求與東南亞國家建立廣泛的經濟和戰略關係，以促進本國經濟發展。與此同時，印度也在一定程度上呼應2017年美國正式提出的「印太戰略」（Indo-Pacific Strategy），並以印美日澳「四方聯盟」（Quad Alliance）為基礎拉攏東南亞國家。中印雙方未來在東南亞地區進行地緣優勢的競逐勢必更為激烈。

"Southeast Asia has long been an important area for large countries. The region is located at the crossroads of Asia and Oceania, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and adheres to important global energy channels; the land is also connected to the mountains and rivers of China and India. Since 2000, China has become the most important economic partner of ASEAN through trade and investment. After the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the advancement of this initiative, Southeast Asia has gradually occupied a pivotal position in the Belt and Road. Southeast Asia has already been the main region for trade cooperation between China and countries along the route. Currently, China is the largest trading partner of ASEAN countries. Since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, the Look East policy proposed in the early 1990s has been further strengthened into the Act East policy, seeking to establish extensive economic and strategic relations with Southeast Asian countries to promote their economic development. At the same time, it responded to the ＂Indo-Pacific Strategy＂ officially proposed by US President Donald Trump in 2017, and stepped up the joint efforts of Southeast Asian countries based on the ＂Quad Alliance＂ of India, the United States, Japan and Australia. The bidding for the geographical advantage will be more intense in the future, and China needs to plan ahead."